Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds as ETF Flows Rebound

Bitcoin on the Move Toward $65,000

On Sunday, October 6, BTC advanced by 1.19%, recovering a 0.05% loss from the previous session to close at $62,913. BTC aligned with the broader crypto market, which gained by 1.32%, pushing the total crypto market cap to $2.138 trillion.

US Jobs Report Sets a Bullish Backdrop

Friday’s US Jobs Report eased fears of a sharp US economic downturn, boosting demand for riskier assets. Notably, the Nasdaq Composite Index rallied 1.22%, reflecting investor optimism. The upbeat report reduced expectations of a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut. However, investors expect a 25-basis point rate cut, combined with optimism the US can avoid a recession.

Fed rate cuts and a resilient US economy could bolster BTC demand.

US BTC-Spot ETF Flows Rebound

Friday’s US Jobs Report also boosted demand for US BTC-spot ETFs, tilting the supply-demand balance in BTC’s favor. On Friday, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net inflows of $25.6 million. While modest by historical standards, the inflows were significant for BTC price trends. US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends continue to influence BTC demand amidst lingering oversupply risks.

US BTC-spot ETF Market Key to Supply-Demand Trends

Earlier this year, BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was pivotal in absorbing surplus BTC from the German government’s BTC sale. In July, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas likened the US BTC-spot ETF market to PacMan, stating,

“In the meantime, IBIT et al. continue to gobble up BTC like Super Pac-Man. Impressive given price still sub-60k after 20% drop.”

US Presidential Election and Oversupply Risk

Near-term US BTC-spot ETF flow trends could draw increased scrutiny as the US Presidential Election looms. The US government currently holds a 203,293 BTC stockpile. A Trump victory could ease concerns of oversupply. At Bitcoin 2024, Trump said he would build a national BTC stockpile if reelected.

In contrast, a Kamala Harris win could continue exposing BTC to oversupply risk, possibly impacting near-term BTC demand.

Outlook

Investors should remain alert to crucial US economic indicators and updates from the Middle East.

An escalation in the Middle East conflict could trigger a flight to safety, possibly impacting BTC demand. Traders should also monitor ETF inflows closely as they may impact short-term supply-demand trends for BTC and the broader market. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage your BTC and crypto exposures.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC holds well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.

A breakout from the $64,000 resistance level could bring the September 27 high of $66,520 into play. Furthermore, a break above $66,520 may signal a move toward the $69,000 resistance level.

Investors should consider news from the Middle East, upcoming US economic data, and US BTC-spot ETF market flows.

Conversely, a drop below the 50-day EMA could give the bears a run at the $60,365 support level and the 200-day EMA. A fall through the 200-day EMA may signal a fall toward $55,000.

With a 56.52 14-day RSI reading, BTC may rise to the $69,000 resistance level before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remains below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bearish price trends.

An ETH climb above the 50-day EMA could bring the $2,664 resistance level into play. Furthermore, a breakout from the $2,664 resistance level may signal a move toward the 200-day EMA and $3,000.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH drop below the $2,403 support level could give the bears a run at the $2,124 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 48.98, indicates an ETH drop to the $2,124 support level before entering oversold territory.