Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Slips on a Fourth BTC Day in the Red

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.59% to extend its losing streak to four sessions.
• Friday’s US jobs report increased bets of 75-basis point Fed rate hikes in November and December, which weighed on riskier assets.
• BTC’s fourth day in the red led the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index down from 24/100 to 22/100.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.59%. Following a 2.14% decline on Friday, BTC ended the day at $19,418. Notably, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the first time in five sessions.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,626. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,950, BTC fell to a late low of $19,250. BTC came close to the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,225 before a partial recovery to $19,418.

Following the BTC response to the US jobs report on Friday, Fed fear continued weighing on investor appetite. While the markets have priced in a 75-basis point rate hike in November, the fall in the US unemployment rate to 3.5% has also fueled bets of a 75-basis point hike in December.

According to the FedWatchTool, the probability of a 75-basis point December rate hike stands at 23.4%, up from 0% one week earlier. After tracking the NASDAQ 100 through the Friday session, the NASDAQ 100 Mini will likely guide BTC in the final hour (UTC). Investors will eye broader market sentiment towards the Fed.

The Fear & Greed Index Falls on a Fourth BTC Daily Loss

Today, the Fear & Greed Index fell from 24/100 to 22/100. The Index succumbed to BTC’s string of losses that extended to four sessions on Saturday. While the Index remains in the Extreme Fear zone, the Index continues to avoid sub-20/000.

However, the lack of direction will likely leave investors sidelined as economic uncertainty grips the market.

The jury is out on whether the Fed can tame inflation and avoid a hard landing. The uncertainty leaves the global financial markets in the hands of US economic indicators near term.

For the bulls, the Index will need to continue avoiding sub-20/100 to support a shift in sentiment. However, a fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC return to sub-$18,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.15% to $19,390. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,449 before falling to a low of $19,371.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $19,431 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,613 and the Saturday high of $19,626. A BTC return to $19,500 would signal a bullish session. However, investor angst over the Fed and the prospects of hawkish Fed rate hikes over the remainder of the year remain crypto headwinds.

In the case of an extended rally, BTC should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,807 and resistance at $20,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $20,183.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,237 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$19,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,055 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,679, just above the September low of $18,210.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $19,642.

After the mid-week 50-day EMA bullish cross through the 100-day EMA, the 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA pulled back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish price signals.

A BTC move through R1 ($19,613) would give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($19,642) and the 50-day EMA ($19,670) to target R2 ($19,807). However, failure to move through the 100-day EMA ($19,642) would give the bears a run at S1 ($19,237).