Bitcoin Forecast for Q2 2025 – BTC Waiting for a Breakout, but Momentum Seems Fading

We have seen various headlines that have moved the Bitcoin market quite drastically, not the least of which was the idea of a Strategic Crypto Reserve in the United States. At one point, people got very excited about the idea of the United States Government jumping in and lifting the Bitcoin market. However, it was revealed that the Bitcoin that they would be using in the Strategic Crypto Reserve was Bitcoin that they had already confiscated. In other words, markets were let down.

Multiple External Issues

The biggest problem that Bitcoin will face is going to be all of the noise around the world. The first thing to think about is the fact that there could be a bit of an economic slowdown, and that is something that will work against the idea of large institutions putting a lot of money into Bitcoin. Ultimately, market participants need larger players to get involved. At this point, a lot of institutional traders simply cannot be bothered getting long.

Another major issue is going to be interest rates. Interest rates around the world being strong have a detrimental influence on Bitcoin, because most institutions look at volatility and asset classes through the prism of “risk versus rate of return.” What I mean by this is that the higher beta that an asset has, and Bitcoin has massive beta, the more concerned traders will be in placing large bets on a market that can move so viciously. With yields in various countries around the world rising, this means that there is a very real question of whether or not you should risk your money on a market that move so viciously and wildly, or just simply put a few massive bond trades on and collect a free rate of return.

Technical Analysis

For what it is worth, the technical analysis for Bitcoin is still relatively positive, but it looks as if we are grinding out some type of range between the $75,000 region, and the $90,000 region. I think the big hands for truly bullish action will be a break above the $93,000 level, just as a move below the $75,000 level would be very ugly for Bitcoin.

As things stand right now, it would not surprise me at all to see Bitcoin sit in a bit of a range for Q2, with perhaps the occasional breakout above this area. However, if we can get a weekly close above the $94,000 level, I think that will be the major tell that Bitcoin is ready to continue going higher. If we get the exact opposite, meaning a weekly close below the $75,000 level, Bitcoin is likely to plunge toward the $55,000 level in that scenario.

While I do believe Bitcoin goes higher over the longer term, the real question is whether or not the $75,000 level can hold as support? I suspect that will be the major theme of Q2. As long as we are above there, dollar cost averaging will probably be one of the primary ways I’ll be trading Bitcoin.