Bitcoin: Getting Closer and Closer to the Rally to $100K+?

Bitcoin Elliot Wave Analysis

Using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), I showed last week that Bitcoin (BTC) was wrapping up its last 4^th and 5^th waves of c-wave lower. See figure 1 below. I was looking for “(green) wave-4 is underway and should ideally subdivide into a last more minor (grey) minute-c wave to the ideal target zone of around $33K+/1K.

Based on the more recent available price data, I have adjusted this target zone slightly lower …. When it also completes, BTC should do one last stab lower for wave-5 to ideally ~$23+/-1K.” Now, 4^th waves are always real tricksters (see here), and all we got was $31K as the subdivision did not materialize.

Figure 1. Bitcoin daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

The c-wave is wrapping up its last 5^th wave.

The $31K high was all off (green) minor wave-4, and since the price action has been overlapping to the downside. What do I mean by “overlapping”? Three waves lower, followed by three waves back up, etc. The pattern morphs into an ending diagonal minor wave-5 of (red) intermediate wave-c of major-4. See Figure 1 above.

All BTC needs to do is complete the last (grey) minute wave-v of 5, and it has then technically done enough to complete the correction that started in November last year. A break back above the $31K high will be the first confirmation that the rally to $100K+ has begun.

Please note the positive divergences that are developing on the technical indicators: the MACD is on a buy and pointing up, while money flows back into BTC. These are additionally signs of a low being put into place.

Bottom Line and BTC Price Forecast

Over the past many weeks, the EWP has been able to forecast BTC’s price decline. A few minor tweaks were necessary as not every daily scribble can be known beforehand. But once these scribbles were identified and qualified, they all fitted without exception within the EWP-based path laid out many weeks ago:

• Drop to the $25-27.5K region (achieved).
• Multi-day bounce back to ~$33-4+/-1K (almost reached as it stalled at $32K).
• Final stab lower to ~$23-24+/-1K (now underway).

BTC is likely completing an ending diagonal (ED) 5th wave at this stage. EDs are made up of five smaller waves (grey i, ii, iii, iv, and v in Figure 1), of which their respective internals are three waves. So far, this appears to be the case, and wave-iii of the ED is now about to complete. Thus BTC seems to be close to completing its correction, but it will have to rally back above $31K to provide initial confirmation this is the case.