Bitcoin News: Supply Imbalance Could Push BTC Price to $70K

The top crypto has booked 5% gains thus far since Monday after two consecutive losing weeks but the price action seems to be struggling to recapture an important support area after last week’s bearish breakout.

Data from CoinGlass shows that the $80,000 zone is a highly contested area where large buy and sell orders flow to top exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, meaning that the price may fluctuate wildly while it stays at these levels.

Meanwhile, the chart also shows that big orders are almost 100% sales once the price hits the $85,000 while buying pressure is quite high once the price hits the $75,000 threshold or lower.

This $75,000 support is then critical for BTC at a point when a trend line break has occurred. A drop below this level could mean that bulls have exhausted their ammo and most outstanding trade orders have been filled, which gives the price a free pass to keep dropping to lower levels.

No Interest Rate Cuts in 2025?

The macro backdrop currently favors a bearish outlook as Trump’s hostile measures on the trade front could result in higher inflation within the United States.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve may opt to keep rates unchanged this year if the economic outlook remains uncertain in the next few months.

The market’s current baseline scenario for 2025 includes two planned cuts that would support a jump in the price of financial assets as risk premiums drop alongside benchmark interest rates.

The weekly chart shows that BTC broke below a long-dated trend line support last week and it is now retesting this area after Trump’s 90-day pause to tariffs.

Momentum indicators have improved lately as the MACD’s histogram has – thus far – shown a deceleration in negative momentum while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved up slightly although it is still nearly 16% below the signal line.

BTC’s Supply Imbalance Risks Drop Below $70K

One of the most relevant technical factors to keep an eye on is a huge supply imbalance lingering between the $70,600 and the $74,400 levels.

Supply imbalances occur when demand rises too fast and the available supply fails to accommodate it. This causes a significant spike in the price that leaves gaps as normal price discovery goes out the window.

This happened back in November when Trump won the Presidential election as market participants were euphoric about the positive implications that this could have for the crypto space.

This gap has been mostly filled but a portion of it still hasn’t and that increases the downside risk for BTC as market makers could take advantage of depressed market sentiment to push the price lower and fill this gap.

After a bearish trend line breakout, the odds of a supply imbalance fill are now higher. We have seen a pattern of heavy selling during the weekend lately. If the price of BTC starts to drift lower starting tonight, this could mean that there is a coordinated attempt to fill this gap.

The reason why market makers do this is to take advantage of the buy orders that were not filled back in November as the price was rushed to all-time highs by Trump’s election.

As the supply imbalance gets filled, investors may have a clearer view of what the true trend is. If the market keeps dipping after the $70,600 level is hit, it could mean that BTC will keep heading lower as it is no longer technically relevant to keep pushing the price downwards.

Meanwhile, if the price bounces strongly once it hits this level, the odds that the bullish cycle that started back in November will resume will skyrocket.