Bitcoin Picture Review: Will It Go to Zero or $100K+?

In my last update in late May, see here, I was already looking for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach ideally as low as $23K +/-1K. Currently, the cryptocurrency is trading at around $21K. Thus, BTC moved lower as expected but has surpassed the ideal (!) target zone. I use the word “ideal” because it is based on standard/textbook Fibonacci-based projections, which is all one can go by at first. But Bitcoin, like any other publically traded financial asset, does not have to follow an ideal path.

Bitcoin Elliot Wave Analysis

Thus, with the “breakdown,” we should re-assess and adjust the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP)-based target zone. An excellent way to do that is to zoom out. Figures 1 and 2 show the big-picture EWP counts I am tracking for BTC.

Figure 1. Bitcoin monthly charts with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

One vs. two more Bull runs higher.

Albeit BTC is dropping lower than initially expected, my bigger picture upside target remains the same once this correction has run its course: $100K+. Figure 1 shows a pathway for Bitcoin to achieve this astronomical level. In this case, BTC should now be in Cycle 4 wave. Not shown here, but IMHO, Cycle waves 1 and 2 were completed in 2011. In more detail, C-4 appears to be morphing into a zig-zag.

The ideal target zone for this zig-zag is $25905-12125 (C=0.618x A to C=A). As said, based on the smaller waves and perfect path, $24-22K seemed initially a very viable target zone. But since all we can do is “anticipate, monitor, and adjust,” the latter is now prudent.

Once C-4 completes, and it will require a break back above the recent highs in May to signal this is the case, C-5 should then be a ~1000% rally from those lows based on previous halving cycles. See here.

Thus, depending on where exactly BTC will bottom (think high- to low $10Ks), we can then extrapolate the Cycle 5 target in more detail.

The 2^nd alternative, and please note I do not have a bearish EWP count that tells me BTC will directly go to $0 from current levels, suggests the cryptocurrency has two more legs higher to go: major-5 of Cycle-3 and Cycle-5. See Figure 2 below.

Figure 2. Bitcoin monthly charts with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

Cycle wave three will target $100K+, but then a more considerable degree 4^th and 5^th wave will follow: Cycle waves 4 and 5. The former should bring BTC back to about $30-50K before a rally to $300-500K (see also here). This option is invalidated when BTC trades below the 2019 highs (~$13600) because 1^st and 4^th waves are not allowed to overlap in an impulse.

Bottom Line and BTC Price Forecast

Thus bigger picture-wise, we now have a clear set of parameters/if-then scenarios. If BTC can stay above $13600 and rally back above the May highs and ultimately the March highs, then it has the potential to reach $300K+ over the next several years.

But if BTC crosses that level at any moment, the Bitcoin Bull will be over once it reaches $100K+. Thus, either way, we are now prepared. Forewarned is forearmed.