Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Targets $60k as Open Interest Nears $25B

 Key Insights:

• Bitcoin (BTC) price peaked at $52,040 on Feb 14, registering another yearly peak in 3 consecutive trading days.
• In the derivatives markets, BTC futures Open Interest is approaching the $25 billion mark for the first time since 2021. 
• Historical accumulation trends shows that breaking above $54,000 could send BTC price into a parabolic rally towards $60,000

Bitcoin (BTC) price crossed $52,000 on Feb 14 while record-breaking capital inflows from derivatives traders suggest that more bullish action will follow. 

The total capital stock in the Bitcoin perpetual futures markets is nearing the global peak recorded when BTC price reached $69,000 in November 2021, sparking optimism across the ecosystem. 

BTC price undervalued and can the bulls capitalize on the growing positive momentum to push for a $60,000 retest

Bitcoin Open Interest Approaches $25 billion First time Since 2021

Undoubtedly, the spot ETF approval on Jan 11 has enhanced institutional investor interest in Bitcoin as an asset class. Thanks to a flurry of corporate entities and high networth investors adding Bitcoin to their portfolio in recent weeks, BTC price has been on an upward trajectory

However, in addition to the spot market acquisitions, vital data trends show Bitcoin derivatives markets have also witnessed a significant inflow of capital. 

Coinglass’ Open Interest metric tracks real-time changes in total capital stock invested in Bitcoin perpetual futures contracts. 

On Feb 15, BTC Open Interest (OI) hit a milestone, crossing the $23.9 billion mark, its highest since December 2021

A closer look at the charts shows that $6.5 billion (27%) of the total OI was invested within the first two weeks of February 2024 alone.

Interestingly, this 27% jump in OI between Feb 1 and Feb 14 has now outpaced the BTC spot price which has only grown 24% from $41,860 to a peak of $52,2040 during that period. 

Typically, such a rapid growth in OI is a prime signal that the market is welcoming new participants injecting fresh capital inflows. And when the OI growth outpaces spot prices’ trajectory, it can be a bullish signal for a number of reasons. 

Firstly it indicates a sense of urgency among bullish traders looking to quickly capitalize on the current dominant positive headwinds in the markets.

More importantly, the robust interest from traders and investors signals confidence in Bitcoin’s fundamental growth catalysts and price prospects with respect to the current macroeconomic conditions. 

BTC Price Forecast: $60,000 Target Now in Play 

At the time of writing, BTC is currently trading at $52,000. Notably, the last time Bitcoin open interest reached its current $23.9 billion mark in 2021, spot prices were around the $57,000 range. 

This signals that BTC  price may be currently undervalued relative to the capital inflows stock in the derivatives markets. Hence a bullish attempt at reclaiming the $60,000 target could be in play in the coming days. 

However, Bitcoin bulls face significant resistance at the $54,000 territory. 

IntoTheBlock’s  in/out of the money data shows that 122,450 addresses had acquired 61,760 BTC at the maximum price of $53,500..

Considering that they’ve been holding at a loss for nearly 3 years, a large number of those investors could exit once BTC prices approach their break even point. 

If the bulls can scale that sell-wall, a retest of the $60,000 territory could be on the cards as predicted. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast, Feb 2024. Source: IntoTheBlock

On the flipside, the bears could regain foothold if they force a major downswing below $45,000. But that seems far-fetched considering the looming support buy-wall at $45,700. 

At that zone, 899,540 addresses that acquired 521,200 BTC at the average price of $45,760 could make frantic covering purchases to avoid slipping into a net-loss position.