Bitcoin Price Forecast: Potential Support Levels After Record Highs

Following an advance to new record highs of 73,836 reached last Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) began to show signs of exhaustion. The 8-Day MA (light blue) has since turned down and it is back below the previous record high of 69,000. This is typical of a failure following a throwover to new trend highs. It is like an undercut and run pattern seen in a declining trend but for a bull trend instead.

Showing Signs of Exhaustion

The most recent upward momentum move started around February 26. It led to an eventual breakout to new record highs. Will demand stay strong enough to keep Bitcoin moving higher once the prior high resistance is breached? That becomes less likely given the pullback that has begun following the new record high. Notice that the relative strength index (RSI) triggered a bearish head and shoulders top last Friday. Today, Bitcoin is on track to close clearly below the 8-Day MA. That line has represented dynamic support for the rising trend since January 29. Today’s bearish price action shows it being clearly broken.

Weekly Bearsh Reversal Triggers

Look at the weekly chart (not shown) and you will notice a long legged doji bearish candlestick pattern. It is following through to the downside this week after a drop below last week’s low of 64,505 triggered. If the retracement continues, and it looks like there is a good chance it will, Bitcoin next heads towards the 38.6% Fibonacci retracement at 60,338, and then the 50% retracement around 56,168.

That 50% price zone has potentially greater significance as the 50-Day MA converges with the retracement level. Further down is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 51,999. Support may be seen around any of these price levels, leading to a bullish reversal. However, given the sharp 92% (starting from January 23 swing low) advance prior to the new record high, the retracement may not resolve to the upside quickly. That rally occurred in only 51 days.

Upside Breakout

Alternatively, a bullish signal would be indicated on a rally above the 68,934 daily swing high. Such a move may lead to a test of the recent high and possibly to an advance above it. If so, it looks like the next new high target would be around 77,660.

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