Bitcoin Price Forecast: What Next for BTC as Trump Triggers $69k Rally

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin price reached a new monthly peak of $69,430 on Saturday July 27, up 9% within the last 72 hours, on-chain analysis explores how investors’ reaction in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s appearance at Bitcoin Nashville conference could set the pace for BTC price action in the week ahead.

Trump Factor Drives BTC to $69k

Donald Trump’s appearance at the Bitcoin Nashville conference dominated the crypto media headlines over the past week. Bitcoin price action within the duration of the conference shows that there was increased investor interest in BTC/USD markets as a result of the media buzz.

The conference held between July 25 and closed on July 27, with a landmark speech by Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump.

Last week, traders booking profits after the Ethereum ETF launch hype on July 22  had sent Bitcoin price into 7.2% downswing to a weekly low of $63,460. But after the Bitcoin Nashville conference kicked off on Thursday July 25, the momentum around BTC/USD markets gradually swung bullish.

Few hours before Donald Trump’ speech began on Saturday, BTC price raced above the $69,000 mark, reflecting a 9.4% rally within the duration of the Bitcoin Nashville conference. Conspicuously, since the conference ended, BTC price has entered a mild downtrend.

Fatigued Bull Traders Retreat after Failed $70k aAttempt

The chart above clearly shows how Donald Trump’s growing Bitcoin-friendly reputation impact Bitcoin price action over the weekend.

But having failed to clear the $70,000 resistance at peak of the media frenzy, speculation is now rife, whether BTC will witness a major sell-off or a spike in demand after US institutional markets open trading on Monday, July 29.

Trading data from Bitcoin derivatives exchanges this weekend suggests majority of BTC speculative traders are leaning bearish.

CryptoQuant’s Taker/Buyer ratio, which compares the daily volume of Bitcoin buy orders against sell orders, provides a clear indication of this.

At the time of writing on July 28, Bitcoin Taker Buy/Sell ratio has dropped to -0.97, showing that the volume of seller-initiated trades has exceeded the current market demand.

Notably, this is the first time that BTC derivatives trade balance has plunged into negative territories since the Bitcoin Nashville conference began in on June 26.

This raises concerns that Bitcoin demand is now in decline as the media frenzy surrounding Trump’s appearance at the Nashville conference wanes.

In summary, with BTC short-term supply now exceeding demand, Bitcoin price is poised to experience some downside at the start of the week.

Looking forward, strategic risk-assets investors will keep eye out for two critical US macroeconomic indicators: the JOLTs Job openings report, and Non-Farm Payrolls data slated for Tuesday, July 30 and Friday August 2, respectively.

If either report prints dovish figures, Bitcoin price could experience a sharp bullish reversal as the week unfolds.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Bears Must Break $65k Support

Having failed to break the $70,000 resistance during the Trump-fuelled media euphoria, Bitcoin’s Taker Buy/Sell ratio indicates that fatigued bull traders are now likely to retreat towards the $65,000 psychological support level.

More so, technical price indicators on the BTC/USD daily chart also depict a bearish outlook.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also hovering around 64.06, indicating that the BTC in overbought condition and may face selling pressure in the near-term.

The Fibonacci retracement levels highlight key resistance and support levels. Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at the $70,000 mark, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

On the downside, the $65,000 support level is critical, as a break below this level could lead to a further decline towards the $60,000 support, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

In summary, the bearish indicators suggest that Bitcoin may struggle to sustain its current price levels. A failure to hold the $65,000 support could result in a further decline, while resistance at $70,000 remains a significant barrier to any upward movement as the week unfolds.