Bitcoin Price Outlook: BTC Flashes Mixed Signals, $100,000 in Focus

Bitcoin (BTC) hit a record level of $108,000 in December 2024. The price encountered technical resistance at this level, triggering a price correction. The exchange inflows have significantly decreased in December 2024. The chart below shows that exchange inflows peaked in November 2024 at 104,650 BTC on a single day. However, inflows in January 2025 have dropped to 10,333 BTC as of 6 January. Bitcoin’s price fell in December from the technical resistance and moved toward the support area of around $90,000.

Moreover, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust showed a record outflow of $332.6 million on January 2, as shown in the chart below. This marks the largest single-day outflow since its inception. Similar outflow patterns were observed in December, indicating heightened selling pressure. However, the inflows into other Bitcoin ETFs, such as those managed by Bitwise, Fidelity, and Ark 21Shares, suggest renewed interest from institutional investors. These ETFs recorded a combined inflow of over $100 million. These ETF movements highlight mixed market sentiment but signal the potential for recovery if inflows continue in January 2025.

Recent Catalysts Driving Bitcoin’s Momentum

Michael Saylor’s announcement of MicroStrategy’s $209 million Bitcoin purchase demonstrates continued confidence in Bitcoin. It highlights its value as a long-term store of wealth and a strategic asset for institutional portfolios. Despite this, Bitcoin ETFs experienced strong outflows in December, as indicated by exchange ETF data. Meanwhile, Telegram introduced NFT conversions for digital gifts in broader crypto developments, enhancing blockchain adoption and user interactivity on the platform. Additionally, Binance secured regulatory approval in Brazil, solidifying its position in Latin America’s rapidly growing crypto market. These advancements highlight ongoing innovation and regulatory progress in crypto, which could attract more institutional and retail investors.

Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA Holdings, predicted that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by 2025. He cited institutional growth, regulatory support, and Bitcoin’s historical appreciation rates. Meanwhile, FTX has started its $16 billion creditor repayment process. Analysts estimate this could inject up to $2.4 billion into the crypto market. These developments highlight increasing institutional involvement and ongoing recovery efforts.

Currently, the price is supported by bullish price action, indicating that Bitcoin may be preparing for its next upward move. However, a break below the $90,000 level could introduce further price corrections in the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart – Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern

The daily chart for Bitcoin shows that the price has achieved its long-term target of $105,000. After hitting record levels around $108,000, the price reversed lower. This reversal has formed an ascending broadening wedge pattern, indicating significant volatility. The support level of this pattern is around $90,000, from which the price is currently bouncing higher.

On the other hand, the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, with both moving averages trending upward. The price remains above these SMAs, confirming a strong bullish trend. Therefore, any price correction from this target zone should be considered a buying opportunity. However, the price must break above the $108,000 resistance zone to continue its upward momentum.

Moreover, the RSI is trending upward from the mid-level, indicating positive momentum in Bitcoin and supporting the continuation of the bullish trend.

Bitcoin (BTC) 4-hour Chart – Triple Bottom Pattern

The 4-hour chart for Bitcoin further highlights the ascending broadening wedge pattern, with the price rebounding from the $90,000 support and approaching the $100,000 mark again. Multiple rebounds from this support zone have formed a triple bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart, suggesting positive momentum. The orange zone on the chart indicates a critical support area, and a break below this level could trigger a further downside.

A breakout above $99,200 would likely initiate upward momentum toward the $112,000 level. If the price breaks above $99,200, any subsequent pullback to this level could present a buying opportunity for a move toward $112,000. However, the price must break the record level of $108,000 before reaching $112,000.

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, Bitcoin has rebounded from the strong support at $90,000 but continues to show mixed signals. While December saw significant ETF outflows and declining exchange inflows, market sentiment remains uncertain. Renewed interest from institutional investors highlights the potential for Bitcoin’s recovery. Notable examples include Michael Saylor’s $209 million Bitcoin purchase and Fred Thiel’s bullish $200,000 target for 2025.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price shows positive developments on the 4-hour and daily charts. The price has closed above the 50-day SMA and formed a triple bottom pattern, indicating positive momentum. A breakout above $99,200 could trigger the next move higher toward the $108,000 and $112,000 levels.