Bitcoin price opened trading just below $60,000 on August 19, consolidating within a narrow 4% range over the weekend. On-chain charts reveal that whale investors on Coinbase have been mounting buying pressure since August 5. Is BTC on the verge of a $65k breakout?
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin price has experienced intense volatility as the crypto market continues to flash mixed signals.
On the upside, Ripple’s perceived victory in its long-running case against the SEC, alongside a dovish CPI report, has significantly improved crypto market sentiment.
Meanwhile, market fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) emerged asU.S. authorities moved over $600 million worth of BTC, coupled with recent Mt Gox payouts.
Without a clear dominant social sentiment theme, BTC price has struggled to make the next leg-up in its recovery phase from the August 5 market crash.
Looking at the BTCUSD daily price chart above, the pioneer cryptocurrency rose 25% between August 5 and August 12. However, bearish catalysts have since halted the rally, and BTC has slipped into a consolidation phase, stagnating around the $58,000 – $60,000 range as of August 19.
Bitcoin price action over the last three days shows sideways movement amid mixed market sentiment. But, a rare on-chain signal suggests that whale investors have been capitalizing on the current consolidation phase to bolster their BTC holdings, a move that could catalyze the next price leg-up.
Whale investors are known for their strategic moves, and their activities can significantly influence BTC price action in the week ahead.
The Coinbase Premium Index, a metric that compares BTC demand between Binance, known to be dominated by retail traders, and Coinbase, known to be dominated by whale investors and corporates, tracks real-time price imbalances between both exchanges, providing clear insights into whales’ current trading sentiment.
As seen in the chart, Bitcoin Price vs. Coinbase Premium Index, the index is currently at 0.018, having conspicuously trended in positive values for 14 consecutive trading days since August 5.
Typically, positive values in the Coinbase Premium Index indicate increased buying pressure among registered whale traders.
While Bitcoin price continues to struggle to break above the $62,000 territory, whale investors have been capitalizing on price stickiness to accumulate more BTC. This persistent uptrend in whale demand over the last 14 days could be bullish for BTC price in the week ahead.
Historically, sustained whale accumulation during consolidation phases has often preceded significant price rallies. For instance, during the December 2020 bull run, similar patterns in the Coinbase Premium Index were observed, signaling the subsequent surge past $30k.
With BTC hovering near the $60,000 mark, technical indicators suggest a potential breakout. The RSI Divergence Indicator at 44.56 shows mild bearish momentum, yet it remains above the oversold territory, indicating room for upward movement.
Bollinger Bands show that BTC is consolidating near the middle band, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears. A breakout above the $59,451 SMA line could trigger a swift rally towards the $62,000 – $65,000 resistance zone.
In contrast, immediate support lies at $55,000, with a further downside limited to the $54,046 level, as shown in the chart. Given the ongoing whale accumulation and supportive historical trends, a bullish breakout towards $65k appears increasingly likely. However, BTC must first overcome the $61k resistance to confirm a more extended rally.
Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is a seasoned research analyst with a background in Commercial Banking and Web3 startups, specializing in DeFi and TradFi analysis. He holds a B.A. in Economics and is pursuing an MSc in Blockchain.