Bitcoin Price Risks 15% Correction By November End — Fractal Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) is signaling extreme overbought conditions after rallying approximately 35% in the last seven days, primarily due to Donald Trump’s recent United States presidential election win and the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point interest rate cut.

A 15% Bitcoin Price Correction Likely in November

As of Nov. 12, the top cryptocurrency was on course to post its first daily loss after Trump’s win, dropping by over 5.30% from its intraday—and record—high of around $90,000.

The correction appears partly due to BTC’s overbought daily relative strength index (RSI) readings. In essence, an overbought RSI—above 70—suggests that buying momentum may be exhausted, and traders might start taking profits, potentially decreasing the asset’s price.

For instance, Bitcoin’s daily RSI climbed above 70 in late October 2024, preceding an 8.5% price correction. Similarly, the cryptocurrency dropped by approximately 23.45% after signaling overbought conditions in March 2024.

Bitcoin could undergo a similar correction in November 2024, targeting its prevailing ascending trendline support at around $73,810, coinciding with the 1.0 Fib retracement line. That amounts to a 15% price correction.

It is vital to mention that overbought RSIs do not guarantee immediate reversals. Assets can remain in overbought territory for extended periods during strong bullish trends, akin to how Bitcoin rallied by over 60% during the February-March 2024 period.

Therefore, if the March-February 2025 rally scenario is any indication, Bitcoin’s price can surge toward or above $100,000 in the coming weeks—probably by mid-December 2024.

Bitcoin Typically Rises 55 Days After U.S. Elections

The short-term Bitcoin price correction does not mean the beginning of a bear cycle. Instead, it could wash out profit-takers and leave the market with long-term bulls, especially after Trump’s pro-crypto presidential term.

Interestingly, Bitcoin has risen to new record highs less than two months after the previous two U.S. elections. The current setup appears to mirror those past cycles, with market sentiment now eyeing a potential repeat.

“Bitcoin will hit $100k in [almost] 55 days after the U.S. Election,” noted crypto market analyst Symbiote, adding:

“Right after that $BTC might go sideline and altseason will begin $100 in right alts will become $100,000 in a few days.”