Despite reaching a 3-year peak, Bitcoin on-chain data trends show that rapid inflows from ETF firms could trigger another BTC price breakout toward $60,000
Key Insights:
Bitcoin (BTC) price crossed the $50,371 mark on Feb. 13, bringing its 2024 year to date gains to the 20% mark. Despite reaching a 3-year peak, on-chain data trends show that rapid inflows from Bitcoin ETF firms could trigger another breakout towards $60,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) price rally this week has been attributed to speculations to rising institutional interest in BTC as an asset class. On-chain data shows that the aggressive buying pressure from newly-approved spot Bitcoin Spot ETF firms have been pivotal to the recent price upswing that sent Bitcoin price above $50,000 for the first time since December 2021.
The chart below represents the growth trend in the Asset Under Management of Bitcoin ETF entities. The cumulative AUM crossed the $10 billion for the first time on Feb 13, 2024.
The ETF entities captured in TheBlock’s computation include: BlackRock (IBIT), Fidelity (FBTC), Ark Invest/21Shares (ARKB), Bitwise (BITB), Franklin (EZBC), Invesco/Galaxy (BTCO), VanEck (HODL), Valkyrie (BRRR), WisdomTree (BTCW) and Hashdex (DEFI).
Interestingly the total AUM of these firms stood at $851million at the end of the first trading day on Jan 11. This implies the capital stock has grown by 1,150% over the last 31 days at a cumulative daily growth rate of about 9.2%.
Effectively, this chart shows that after an initial first few weeks of uncertainty, investors are piling funds into the BTC spot ETF products at an accelerated rate.
If this buying trends continues its current daily growth rate of 9.2%, BTC price could enter a parabolic breakout towards the $60,000 area.
Drawing inferences from the on-chain data trends analyzed above, Bitcoin price stands a chance of breaking out toward $60,000 if the ETFs can sustain the current buying trend.
The Bollinger band technical indicator highlights that if the Bitcoin bulls can stage a breakout above the initial $51,100 resistance, it could rise toward $58,000 before hitting a more resilient roadblock.
And a decisive breakout above the level could see BTC price retest $60,000 as predicted.
On the downside, the bears can invalidate this prediction if BTC price dips below $40,000. But in that scenario, the lower Bollinger band shows that the bulls can mount a significant support buy-wall at the $39,000 territory.
Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is a seasoned research analyst with a background in Commercial Banking and Web3 startups, specializing in DeFi and TradFi analysis. He holds a B.A. in Economics and is pursuing an MSc in Blockchain.