Bitcoin Prices Forecast: A Dive into BTC’s Bearish Trend Amid SEC Uncertainty

Key Insights:

• BTC declines 0.27%, marking a revisit to sub-$26,000 for the fifth consecutive session.
• Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish speech signals further monetary policy tightening, impacting BTC and the broader market.
• Bitcoin-Spot ETF-related news, especially SEC opening more applications for public comments, expected to significantly impact investor appetite.

The Friday Overview

Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 0.27% on Friday. Following a 1.14% loss on Thursday, BTC ended the session at $26,128. Significantly, BTC revisited sub-$26,000 for the fifth consecutive session.

Fed Chair Powell Sends BTC and the Broader Market South

Investors remained responsive to sentiment toward the Fed and monetary policy-related chatter. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell delivered a hawkish speech, with further monetary policy tightening plausible before hitting the brakes.

However, the Fed will have another round of nonfarm payrolls and inflation numbers to consider before the September FOMC meeting. A deterioration in labor market conditions, weaker wage growth, and softer inflation numbers would give the doves more voice.

BTC recovered from a dip to a session low of $25,849 but failed to track the NASDAQ Composite Index into positive territory.

Crypto Headwinds Deliver Another Bearish Session

BTC fell for the tenth session out of eleven on Friday. Crypto headwinds remained a drag on Friday, with uncertainty about the future of the ETF spot market a focal point.

There were no updates from the SEC about its plans for the BTC-Spot ETF applications. Investors are betting on the SEC pushing back the decision until next year, delaying an anticipated influx of sticky institutional money.

While the SEC appears unwilling to hit the approve button for one, some, or all of the BTC-Spot ETF applications, the Courts are also taking a measured approach toward BTC-Spot ETFs.

The Appellate Courts have continued to push back a ruling in a case that has been ongoing since 2022. Grayscale is in Court appealing the SEC decision to deny the request to convert Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust into a BTC-spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).

The Saturday Session: A Day of Reflection

There are unlikely to be SEC v Ripple, Coinbase (COIN), and Binance case-related updates to influence.

Investors should monitor the crypto news wires for events that can move the dial. US lawmaker comments on regulation, SEC activity, and speculation about the ongoing SEC cases will draw interest.

However, bitcoin-Spot ETF-related news will likely have more impact. Reports of the SEC opening more applications to the public for comments would weigh on investor appetite.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Actions

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC below the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band. After the Friday decline, BTC retreated from the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 24.71 continued to show BTC in oversold territory. The RSI aligns with the EMAs supporting a return to sub-$26,000 to bring the $25,650 – $25,340 support band into play. However, a BTC return to $26,500 would signal a BTC move through the lower level of the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC sits below the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band. BTC remains below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reaffirming bearish near-term price signals.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 45.23 reflects a bearish sentiment, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the EMAs, with sub-$26,000 and the $25,650 – $25,340 support band in play. However, a return to $26,500 would support a move through the 50-day EMA and a breakout from the lower level of the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band.