Bitcoin Prices Forecast: BTC Below $26,000 Amid SEC and Coinbase Drama

Key Insights:

• Despite gains, BTC remains below $26,000 due to angst over the delayed BTC-Spot ETF market decision.
• ETH falls short of $1,650 for the first time since March, despite support from dip buyers.
• The SEC v Coinbase case takes center stage; a ruling granting the motion to dismiss could force the SEC to settle with Ripple.

The Saturday Overview

BTC-Spot ETF Remains a Headwind: Demand for BTC and the broader crypto market failed to materialize on Saturday. Despite the sub-$26,000, dip buyers remained on the sidelines. Investor sentiment toward the SEC delaying the decisions on seven BTC-Spot ETFs to mid-October weighed. The markets anticipate delays beyond October.

SEC v Coinbase Becomes a Focal Point: The SEC v Coinbase (COIN) takes center stage. Investors await a Judge Failla ruling on the motion to dismiss. Legal experts believe that if Judge Failla grants or partially grants the MTD, the SEC may have to settle the case against Ripple. The two SEC cases are pivotal for the US crypto market.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin Sends Maker (MKR) South: News hit the wires of Vitalik offloading 500 MKR in exchange for ETH via CoWSwap. The markets attributed the sale to Vitalik ire over MakerDAO founder Rune Christensen comments on using the Solana (SOL) codebase for the MakerDAO blockchain. MakerDAO is the second-largest ranked protocol on the Ethereum blockchain, according to DeFiLlama. MKR was down 3.40% over 24 hours. SOL was up 0.11%.

Bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.21% on Saturday. Partially reversing a 0.56% loss from Friday, BTC ended the day at $25,935. Investor angst over the delay to a BTC-Spot ETF market left BTC at sub-$26,000 for a second consecutive session.

On Saturday, ethereum (ETH) rose by 0.50%. Partially reversing a 1.06% loss from Friday, ETH ended the session at $1,637. Despite the positive session, ETH fell short of $1,650 ETH for the first time since March. Dip buyers provided support as a downward trend in staking inflows reflected sentiment toward SEC activity across the digital asset space.

The Sunday Session

After modest gains on Saturday, it could be a testy Sunday session. Reports relating to the ongoing SEC cases against Ripple and Coinbase (COIN) dominate the crypto news wires.

The pending ruling on the Coinbase motion to dismiss will likely be a focal point. If presiding Judge Failla grants the motion to dismiss, the chips will fall on the side of the crypto market. The SEC may have to settle the case against Ripple and end the quest to label all cryptos, except BTC, securities.

However, rulings favoring the SEC would fuel the regulation by enforcement onslaught on the US crypto market.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Actions

Daily Chart

BTC avoided a retest of the trend line and $25,506 support band. However, resistance at $26,000 pegged BTC back from a run at the $26,755 resistance band. Investor sentiment toward the SEC delay to the BTC-Spot ETF decisions continued to weigh.

BTC must hold above the trend line to support a breakout from $26,000 and target the $26,755 resistance band. However, failure to break out from $26,000 would leave the trend line and $25,506 support band in play. A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would see BTC break below the trend line and $25,506 support band to target sub-$25,000.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 35.81 reading shows BTC with room to fall below $25,500 before entering oversold territory.

4-Hourly Chart

BTC remains above the trend line and the $25,506 support band. However, SEC chatter and anti-crypto rhetoric would drag BTC below the trend line and the support band to target sub-$25,000.

Avoiding the trend line would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA and the $26,755 resistance band. However, BTC would need a bullish crypto event to support a breakout from $26,000.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 39.29 shows BTC has more room to fall, leaving the trend line and the $25,506 support level in play.

Ethereum Price Action

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ETH above the $1,626 support band. However, ETH remained well below the trend line after the August losses. The bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 200-day EMA signaled deteriorating market sentiment. Uncertainty about the ongoing SEC v Ripple and Coinbase cases and the lack of progress toward a crypto-spot ETF market remained headwinds.

An ETH return to $1,650 would support a run at $1,700 and the $1,746 resistance band and 50-day EMA. However, a fall through the $1,626 support band would bring sub-$1,600 into play.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, 36.81 showed ETH has room to fall further before entering oversold territory.

4-Hourly Chart

ETH/USD holds above the $1,626 support level. However, the EMAs send bearish price signals, with ETH well below the trend line. Anti-crypto rhetoric would deliver further negative price pressures and a return to sub-$1,600.

However, favorable ETF-related chatter and US lawmaker support for the digital asset space would be bullish. An ETH move through the 50-day EMA and $1,650 would give the bulls a look at $1,700 and the 200-day EMA.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 40.52 shows ETH has more room before entering oversold territory.