Bitcoin Prices Forecast: BTC Faces Turbulence from Regulations and SEC Uncertainty

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin (BTC) narrowly avoided dropping below $26,000, ending Saturday at $26,079 after a 0.19% decline.
• The SEC has yet to indicate approval for any BTC-Spot ETF applications, raising concerns about further delays.
• New Treasury proposals test digital asset exchange appetite.

The Saturday Overview

On Saturday, Bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.19%. Following a 0.27% fall on Friday, BTC ended the session at $26,079. Significantly, BTC avoided sub-$26,000 for the first time in six sessions.

US Government Agencies Leave BTC in Negative Territory

BTC continued to struggle on Saturday. Hawkish Fed Chair Powell commentary from Friday resonated. The prospect of more Fed interest rate hikes weighed on investor sentiment.

However, news of new US Treasury Department regulations contributed to the cautious mood. Increased reporting requirements and a proposal to place digital asset exchanges under the same rules as traditional brokers tested buyer appetite.

BTC-Spot ETF Market Remains a Focal Point

The SEC has not indicated whether it will approve one, some, or all of the BTC-Spot ETF applications. An influx of institutional money would be particularly bullish for BTC and the broader market. However, the SEC continues to raise concerns about manipulation and surveillance-sharing agreements, suggesting further delays to the launch of spot ETFs.

The Sunday Session

It will likely be a quiet end to the weekend. With no crypto events to move the dial on Saturday, bearish sentiment lingers.

The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the future of the BTC-Spot ETF market remains a drag.

However, we expect BTC to respond to chatter regarding the ongoing SEC cases against Binance, Coinbase, and Ripple. A Court ruling on a motion to dismiss the SEC case against Coinbase would materially affect market sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Actions

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC below the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band. After the Saturday loss, BTC retreated from the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 24.32 showed BTC in oversold territory. The RSI aligned with the EMAs, signaling a return to sub-$26,000 to bring the $25,650 – $25,340 support band into play. However, a move through $26,500 would give the bulls a run at the lower level of the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band and the 200-day EMA.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC remains below the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band. BTC also sits below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reaffirming bearish near-term price signals.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 43.99 reflects a bearish sentiment, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI and the EMAs signal a return to sub-$26,000 to give the bears a run at the $25,650 – $25,340 support band.

However, a return to $26,500 would bring the 50-day EMA and the lower level of the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band into play.