Bitcoin Prices Forecast: BTC Wobbles as ETF Enthusiasm Cools and SEC Cases Mount

Key Insights:

• Monday’s BTC closed at $26,247, marking its seventh consecutive session in decline.
• SEC’s reticence over BTC-Spot ETFs cast shadows on the cryptocurrency market’s future.
• Binance’s decision to halt EUR transactions reveals heightened regulatory pressures.

Monday Overview

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.95%. Following a 0.29% decline on Sunday, BTC ended the day at $26,247. BTC extended the losing streak to seven sessions.

Rising Doubts Over the SEC Approving BTC-Spot ETF Applications Weighed

BTC is on its longest losing streak since six consecutive days in the red in May. Crypto market headwinds are impacting investor sentiment, with the SEC in the eye of the storm.

Euphoria over the BTC-Spot ETF applications has waned since the SEC opened the Ark Invest application to the public for comment. The SEC document highlighted concerns that will likely remain stumbling blocks until a US crypto regulatory framework is in place.

An extended delay to the approval of BTC-Spot ETFs will also delay the much-needed influx of sticky institutional money to deliver the next bull run.

SEC Court cases against Ripple, Coinbase ((COIN), and Binance are other headwinds needing consideration. Adverse rulings could further delay the adoption of BTC and altcoins, with wider acceptance of cryptos needed to support the broader crypto market.

The influence of the SEC case against Binance is evident, with Binance partners cutting ties to avoid the scrutiny of government agencies. On Monday, news hit the wires of Binance pausing EUR deposits and withdrawals, contributing to the gloomy mood and a brief visit to sub-$26,000.

The news of SpaceX and Tesla offloading BTC holdings and SpaceX writing down its BTC holdings value by $373 million was also bearish.

Headwinds Favor a BTC Return to Sub-$25,000 Levels

With no progress toward US legislation to roll out a US crypto regulatory framework likely until after the summer break, the SEC remains in the driving seat.

While the SEC considers BTC a commodity, the ongoing SEC cases against Ripple, Coinbase, and Binance will remain the focal points. While SEC losses in the three high-profile cases may provide market relief, they are unlikely to attract sticky institutional money.

Further SEC moves to delay the approval of pending Spot ETFs would add to the bearish mood by pushing back the likely influx of sticky money.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Actions

This morning, BTC was down 0.34% to $26,157. A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an early high of $26,261 to a low of $26,148.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC sitting above the $25,650 – $25,340 support band. A seven-day losing streak left BTC below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 20.71 continued to show BTC in oversold territory. The RSI aligns with the EMAs supporting a fall to sub-$26,000 to bring the $25,650 – $25,340 support band into play. However, a move through the lower level of the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band and the 200-day EMA would give the bulls a run at $28,000.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC sits below the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band. The near-term bearish trend leaves BTC below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reaffirming bearish near-term price signals.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 27.86 shows BTC in oversold territory, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the EMAs, leaving sub-$26,000 and the $25,650 – $25,340 support band in play. However, a move through the lower level of the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA.