Bitcoin Prices Forecast: BTC’s Dance with Fed Decisions and ETF Rulings

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin’s tumultuous week saw it dip below $26,000 for the fourth straight session on Thursday.
• The fate of BTC-Spot ETFs remains uncertain, heavily influencing the crypto market mood.
• SEC v Binance, Coinbase, Ripple under watch.

The Thursday Overview

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.14%. Partially reversing a 1.35% gain from Wednesday, BTC ended the session at $26,198. Significantly, BTC revisited sub-$26,000 for the fourth consecutive session.

ETF-Related Chatter and Fed Fear Leave BTC in Negative Territory

Investor sentiment toward the outlook for BTC-Spot ETFs continued to weigh on buyer appetite.

While investors await the SEC decisions on the BTC-Spot ETF applications, the delay in a ruling in the Grayscale v SEC case has also tested buyer appetite. A Court ruling in favor of Grayscale would pressure the SEC to approve one, some, or all of the BTC-Spot ETF applications.

This week, Grayscale Chief Legal Officer Craig Salm had this to say on the appeals process,

“Unfortunately, not only is there no Grayscale DC Circuit decision today. But there are no decisions at all.”

In 2022, Grayscale appealed the SEC decision to decline a request to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a BTC-spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).

US Economic Indicators Fuel Fed Fear

On Thursday, US economic indicators added to the bearish mood. Better-than-expected initial jobless claims increased the chance of a more hawkish interest rate trajectory. US initial jobless claims fell from 240k to 230k, suggesting that Fed monetary policy moves have failed to impact hiring and wage growth.

BTC tracked the NASDAQ Composite Index for a second session as investors looked ahead to the Fed Chair Powell speech.

The Friday Session: Fed Chair Powell Takes Center Stage

Investors should continue to monitor the crypto news wires for SEC v Binance, SEC v Coinbase (COIN), and SEC v Ripple -related news. BTC-Spot ETF-related news will need consideration.

While SEC activity and US lawmaker commentary will also move the dial, Fed Chair Powell will influence the afternoon session. Hawkish forward guidance would weigh on riskier assets. BTC and the broader market are sensitive to Fed interest rate decisions.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Actions

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC below the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band. After the Thursday loss, BTC sat below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 24.92 continued to show BTC in oversold territory. The RSI aligns with the EMAs supporting a return to sub-$26,000 to bring the $25,650 – $25,340 support band into play. However, a BTC move through the Thursday high of $26,638 would signal a BTC move through the lower level of the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC remains below the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band. BTC sits below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reaffirming bearish near-term price signals.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 43.16 reflects a bearish sentiment, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the EMAs, with sub-$26,000 and the $25,650 – $25,340 support band in play. However, a move through the 50-day EMA would support a breakout from the lower level of the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band.