Bitcoin Prices Forecast: Inflows Rise, but ETF Limbo Shadows BTC

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin (BTC) gains 0.93%, snapping a five-day losing streak, closing at $29,860.
• Inflows and sentiment toward the SEC v Coinbase case offers support, while ETF delays remain headwinds.
• BTC sits below key resistance at $30,750-$31,250, but above crucial EMAs.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.93%. Reversing a 0.23% fall from Sunday, BTC ended the day at $29,860. Significantly, BTC ended a five-day losing streak.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Actions

This morning, BTC was down 0.20% to $29,799. A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an early high of $29,867 to a low of $29,777.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC sitting below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, BTC sat above the 50-day ($29,582) and 200-day ($27,403) EMAs, sending bullish near and longer-term price signals.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 50.86 reading reflects moderately bullish sentiment. The RSI signals a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring sub-$28,500 and the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC remains below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, BTC sits above the 50-day ($29,751) and 200-day ($29,680) EMAs, affirming bullish near and longer-term price signals.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 51.88 reflects bullish sentiment, with buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. Significantly, the RSI signals a return to $30,000 to give the bulls a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

Coinbase News and Net Inflows Offset ETF Uncertainties

Investor sentiment toward the ongoing SEC v Coinbase case contributed to the bullish start to the week. Interest in the Coinbase case has risen following Court filings of Amicus Curiae briefs on Friday.

Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis was among the parties filing Amicus Curiae briefs, calling for the presiding Judge to dismiss the SEC v Coinbase case.

Inflow statistics into BTC were also bullish. According to a CoinShares report, BTC saw inflows of $27 million last week, ending three weeks of outflows totaling $144 million.

However, BTC failed to hold onto the $30,000 handle for the fifth consecutive session. Uncertainty surrounding the SEC approval of one, some, or all of the spot BTC ETF applications continued to leave BTC in limbo.

On Sunday, John Reed Stark shared his views on the likelihood of the SEC approving spot BTC ETFs, saying,

“My take is that the current SEC will NOT approve a bitcoin spot ETF application for a range of compelling reasons.”

However, Stark went on to say,

“However, I also believe that the crypto-regulatory tides could shift exponentially after Election Day.”

Reed went on to discuss the partisan divide on Capitol Hill and the likely impact of a Republican victory at the next US Presidential Election, saying,

“If Hester Pierce becomes acting Chair of the SEC, given her lengthy track record of dissent and opposition to most crypto-related SEC actions, the world should expect that most US SEC crypto-related enforcement and most crypto-related SEC disruption would grind to a screeching halt.”

If Stark’s view proves true, the SEC is using delay tactics and giving other parties opportunities to provide the SEC reasons to decline the ARK Invest spot BTC ETF application, among others.

The Day Ahead

It is a busier Tuesday session, with the US economic calendar also in the spotlight. A larger-than-expected surge in US retail sales figures could reignite bets on a September Fed rate hike, a bearish price scenario.

However, SEC v Ripple-related chatter, ETF updates, and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will move the dial.

US lawmaker chatter and SEC activity would also need consideration after the Amicus Curiae brief filings. Investors should also look out for any Court response to the request to dismiss the Coinbase case.