Bitcoin Prices Forecast: SEC Moves and SpaceX Write-Down Rock BTC Below $27,000

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) slid by 7.02% to wrap up the day at $26,895.
• The SEC’s contentious proceedings in the Ripple case continue to influence the crypto market.
• Emerging hope as SEC shows signs of favor towards ETH Futures ETFs amid BTC woes.

Thursday Overview

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) slid by 7.02%. Following a 1.52% loss on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $26,895. BTC wrapped up the day at sub-$27,000 for the first time since June 19.

Space X and SEC v Ripple News Weigh

Investors responded to news of SpaceX writing down the value of its BTC ownership by $373 million in 2022 and 2021. Elon Musk, Tesla (TSLA), and SpaceX contributed to the BTC rally that led to the November 2021 ATH of $69,276.

However, Tesla sold 75% of its BTC holdings worth $936 million in the second quarter of 2021.

The latest SpaceX news coincided with the presiding Judge in the SEC v Ripple case granting the SEC permission to file for an interlocutory appeal against the Judge Torres Programmatic Sales ruling.

While the latest crypto news fueled the late Thursday sell-off, ETF uncertainty contributed to a shift in sentiment. Before the Thursday session, BTC had fallen in eight of the nine sessions, with market uncertainty toward the SEC approving the spot BTC ETF applications leaving BTC on the back foot.

However, market conditions improved late in the Thursday session, with news of the SEC planning to approve ETH Futures ETFs raising hopes of progress toward a spot BTC ETF market.

The Day Ahead

Investors should monitor SEC v Ripple-related chatter and ETF updates throughout the session. The SEC must file its motion to file for an interlocutory appeal today, which will draw interest.

SEC progress toward an interlocutory appeal could leave the digital asset space in more disarray as the SEC continues to push its regulation by enforcement agenda. While the approval of ETH Futures ETFs would provide price support, the SEC position on spot ETFs remains the key.

However, SEC v Binance and SEC v Coinbase (COIN)-related news will also move the dial. Investors await a Court ruling on the request to dismiss the SEC case against Coinbase.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Actions

This morning, BTC was up 0.05% to $26,909. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $27,068 before falling to a low of $26,849.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC sitting at the lower level of the $27,500 – $26,850 support band. After the bearish Thursday session, BTC sat below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 24.43 showed BTC in oversold territory. The RSI aligns with the EMAs supporting a fall to sub-$26,000 to bring the $25,650 – $25,340 support band into view. However, a move through the 200-day EMA would give the bulls a run at $28,000.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC sits at the lower level of the $27,500 – $26,850 support band. After the Thursday sell-off, BTC sits below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish near-term price signals. Significantly, the 50-day EMA crossed through the 200-day EMA, a bearish signal.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 7.40 shows BTC deeply in oversold territory, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the EMAs, bringing sub-$26,000 and the $25,650 – $25,340 support band into view.