Bitcoin’s Breakout Confirmed: $38K Next!?

Our “intermediate- to long-term Bullish” POV Remains Correct

If you are a first-time reader of our work, we have been Bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) since mid-January. For example, in our second to last update from a month weeks ago (!), see here, we found,

“As long as … $19597 holds, called the floor, we continue to view BTC as intermediate- to long-term Bullish … targeting ideally $32400-34200.”

Indeed, you may have thought we were crazy back then, but BTC is now trading in the $30Ks, up another 7% since our last update from two weeks ago. See here. Thus our “intermediate- to long-term Bullish” POV was correct, and we remain Bullish on BTC until proven otherwise. See Figure 1.

Namely, the above chart features our Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count, and our primary expectation was stated in our last update as “a breakout above the March 22^nd high at $28,877 kicks in the green W-3, 4, 5, etc. sequence.” Meanwhile, as our insurance policy to prevent any potential havoc to our portfolio, we recognized that “a breakdown of Monday’s low at $26,565 opens up a deeper retrace first before BTC can move higher.” With this week’s breakout, we can raise our insurance level, so to speak. Allow me to explain below.

The Bullish Resolution Continues; Now $28875 Must Hold

Our last update was titled “Pay me now or pay me later,” and BTC is paying our premium members now. Thus, with the confirmed breakout, BTC should now be in green W-3, ideally targeting $34-35K, with a pit stop for grey W-iii and iv at ~$32K and ~$30K, respectively. This bullish resolution remains valid as long BTC can stay above the breakout level at $28,875: the green dotted horizontal line in Figure 1.

Frequent readers may have noticed we continue raising the “must hold levels,” a Bullish sequence. This week it is $28,875. Two weeks ago, it was $26,565. And a month ago, it was $19,597. One can use those as stop (loss) levels, for example. Like then, we know that as long as $28,875 holds, we must continue to view BTC as intermediate- to long-term Bullish.