Brent Crude Oil Price Update – $57.60 Controlling Price Action on Weekly Chart

International-benchmark Brent crude oil futures fell sharply, while posting its biggest weekly loss of the year. Most of last week’s loss was fueled by a steep break on May 23 in reaction to a weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing PMI report. Sellers hit the market on concerns that a prolonged trade dispute between the United States and China would weaken the economy enough to drive down demand. Despite these concerns, supplies remained tight due to the OPEC-led production cuts.

Last week, August Brent crude oil settled at $67.47, down $3.79 or -5.62%.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum has shifted to the downside. A move through $73.95 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $64.12 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is down. It turned down last week when sellers took out the previous minor bottom at $68.02. The move also shifted momentum to the downside.

The main range is $83.30 to $51.90. Its retracement zone at $67.60 to $71.31 is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $51.90 to $73.95. If the trend changes to down then look for the selling to extend into its retracement zone at $62.93 to $60.32.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at $67.47, the direction of the August Brent Crude Oil market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at $67.60.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $67.60 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is a minor pivot at $69.93. This is followed by the main Fibonacci level at $71.31, followed by the minor top at $72.41 and the main top at $73.95.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $67.60 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out last week’s low at $65.90 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the main bottom at $64.12. If this price fails then look for the selling to extend into the short-term retracement zone at $62.93 to $60.32.

Essentially, it all comes down to whether bull traders want to continue to buy strength through $67.60 to $71.31, or play for a pullback into $62.93 to $60.32.