Brent Crude Oil Price Update – Could Breakout Over 200-Day Moving Average at $67.12

International-benchmark Brent crude oil finished lower on Friday but still managed to hold on to its weekly gains. The market was underpinned all week by tensions over U.S.-Iran relations. Traders drove the market to its high for the week on Wednesday, following the release of a bullish U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly inventories report. There was very little movement for about two sessions as volume dropped ahead of the G-20 summit over the week-end, and the OPEC meeting on July 1-2.

Last week, September Brent crude oil settled at $64.74, down $0.93 or -1.44%.

Prices are expected to be underpinned on Monday following the news that the U.S. and China will resume trade negotiations. However, gains could be limited until OPEC and its allies make their decision about production cuts on July 2.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, buyers face a wall of resistance from a series of retracement levels and the 200-Day Moving Average. The market is in no position to change the trend to down, but we could see a closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $66.02 will signal a resumption of this trend.

The first main range is $73.35 to $58.47. Its retracement zone at $65.91 to $67.67 acted like resistance last week. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The next main range is $71.61 to $58.47. Its retracement zone at $65.04 to $66.59 is also resistance. A failure to hold $65.04 could bring in the sellers.

The first short-term range is $58.47 to $66.02. Its retracement zone at $62.25 to $61.35 is potential support. The second short-term range is $59.39 to $66.02. Its retracement zone at $62.71 to $61.92 is additional support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at $64.74, the direction of the September Brent crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $65.04.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $65.04 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first targets are a 50% level at $65.91, followed by last week’s high at $66.02.

The buying will get stronger over $66.02 with the next target a Fibonacci level at $66.59, followed by the 200-Day Moving Average at $67.12 and another Fibonacci level at $67.67.

Crossing to the strong side of the 200-Day Moving Average will be bullish. Look for a potential acceleration to the upside if buyers can take out $67.67.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $65.04 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is wide open under this level with $62.71 the next potential target.