BTC and $30,000 in the Hands of the SEC and Fed Chair Powell

Key Insights:

• On Tuesday, BTC gained 0.11% to end the day at $29,328.
• A surge in US consumer confidence and US corporate earnings failed to distract investors from ETF uncertainty and SEC regulation by enforcement.
• The near-term technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$28,500.

On Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.11%. Following a 2.96% slide on Monday, BTC ended the day at $29,328. Significantly, BTC came up short of $30,000 for the first time since June 20.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.31% to $29,239. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $29,338 before falling to a low of $29,194.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD sitting below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. BTC also remained below the 50-day EMA ($29,448) while holding above the 200-day EMA ($26,903), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, supporting further losses.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 41.91 reading signaled a bearish outlook. Aligning with the 50-day EMA, the RSI signals a fall through $28,500 to give the bears a run at the $27,500 – $26,850 support band. However, a move through the 50-day EMA ($29,448) would support a run at $30,000 and the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC remains below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band and the 50-day ($29,818) and 200-day ($28,803) EMAs, signaling bearish price momentum.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA converged on the 200-day EMA. A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would signal a return to sub-$28,500. However, a BTC move through the 200-day ($29,803) and 50-day ($29,818) EMAs would support a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 34.09 indicates a bearish stance, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, signaling near-term bearish momentum and a return to sub-$28,500.

US Corporate Earnings and Consumer Confidence Provide Support

It was a busy Tuesday session, with investors preparing for the Fed interest rate decision and press conference.

US corporate earnings and a surge in US consumer confidence provided support. However, uncertainty about the future of the spot BTC ETF applications and the US regulatory landscape remained headwinds.

Better-than-expected Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) earnings delivered support, with the CB Consumer Confidence Index surging from 110.1 to 117.0 in July, also bullish.

However, the news from Monday about the SEC alleging Binance.US of wash trading was a reminder of the SEC’s intent to target the US digital asset space.

The Day Ahead

It is a busy day for BTC and the broader market. While SEC v Ripple chatter, ETF updates, and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will need consideration, the Fed will move the dial.

The markets are betting on a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike, leaving Fed Chair Powell in focus. Hawkish forward guidance would test buyer appetite.