BTC and a Return to $30,000 Hinged on the SEC and US Lawmakers

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, BTC ended the day flat at $29,490.
• BTC continued to move sideways as investors eye the SEC cases against Binance and Coinbase and await the SEC decision on the spot ETFs.
• However, the near-term technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a return to $30,000.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) ended the day flat. After a 0.17% fall on Saturday, BTC ended the week up 0.26% to $29,490. Significantly, BTC revisited sub-$29,000 while returning to $30,000 for the first time in four sessions.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.09% to $29,518. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $29,436 before rising to a high of $29,577.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD sitting below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, BTC sat above the 50-day ($29,456) and 200-day ($27,193) EMAs, sending bullish near and longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA, signaling further gains.

However, looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 47.86 reading reflects bearish sentiment. The RSI signals a fall through the 50-day EMA to bring sub-$28,500 and the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view. However, a hold above the 50-day EMA ($29,456) would give the bulls a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC remains below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. BTC sits above the 50-day EMA ($29,443) while remaining below the 200-day EMA ($29,599) EMAs, sending bullish near-term but bearish longer-term price signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed on the 200-day EMA, a bullish price signal. A BTC more through the 200-day EMA ($29,599) would give the bulls a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, a BTC fall through the 50-day EMA ($29,443) would bring sub-$28,500 and the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 53.55 indicates a bullish stance, with buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, signaling a return to $30,000.

BTC Continues Sideways Moves on Lack of Crypto Market Activity

It was an uneventful end to the week, with no crypto events to influence. The lack of crypto events left BTC flat for the session.

However, several events that have created market uncertainty will move the dial, including the SEC cases against Coinbase and Binance and SEC decisions on the pending ETF applications. An SEC appeal of the SEC v Ripple Court ruling would also impact investor sentiment.

The Day Ahead

Investors should continue to monitor the crypto news wires. After an extended period of inactivity, we could see increased price sensitivity to crypto-related news.

SEC v Ripple and SEC v Terraform Lab chatter, ETF updates, and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will move the dial.

US lawmaker chatter and SEC activity would also need consideration.

Last week, Republican Warren Davidson shared a Crypto Law tweet that highlighted SEC Chair Gary Gensler responses to US lawmaker activity. On six separate occasions, the SEC Chair responded to crypto-related hearings on Capitol Hill with anti-crypto rhetoric and the filing of charges against leading crypto players, including Binance and Coinbase.