BTC and a Return to $31,000 in the Hands of the US Economic Calendar

Key Insights:

• BTC retook the $30,000 handle, rising by 1.71% to end the Thursday session at $30,389.
• US economic indicators supported a breakout afternoon.
• The technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a run to $35,000.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.71%. Reversing a 1.03% loss from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $30,389. The breakout afternoon session saw BTC strike a new 2023 high of $30,563.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $29,867. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $29,548, BTC rose to a mid-afternoon high of $30,563. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $30,339 to end the day at $30,389.

US Wholesale Inflation and the NASDAQ Composite Index Deliver Support

It was a busy Thursday session. US wholesale inflation and jobless claims figures drew plenty of interest.

The US producer price index fell by 0.5% in March versus a forecasted 0.1% increase. Also bullish was a larger-than-expected rise in US initial jobless claims. Claims increased from 228k to 239k versus a forecasted 232k.

Considering the US CPI Report, the numbers supported investor expectations of the Fed nearing its peak in the monetary policy tightening cycle.

The NASDAQ Composite Index responded to the stats, rallying 1.99%, with the S&P 500 and Dow seeing gains of 1.33% and 1.14%, respectively.

The Day Ahead

It is another busy day on the US economic calendar. US retail sales, industrial production, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures will be in focus. We expect the retail sales and consumer sentiment figures to move the BTC dial.

While weak stats would put further pressure on the Fed to hit the pause button, we could also see recessionary jitters resurfacing.

However, updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case and Binance and Coinbase-related news will need consideration alongside regulatory activity and US lawmaker chatter.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.06% to $30,370. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $30,405 before falling to a low of $30,370.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $30,273 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $30,679. A move through the Thursday high of $30,563 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires and the US economic indicators should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $30,969 and resistance at $31,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $31,665.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $29,983 into play. However, barring a Fed-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $29,577. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $28,881.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($29,210). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($29,210) would support a breakout from R1 ($30,679) to target R2 ($30,969) and $31,000. However, a fall through S1 ($29,983) would bring S2 ($29,577) and the 50-day EMA ($29,210) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.