BTC and ETH Await US Private Sector PMIs That Could Deliver $20,000

Key Insights:

• A bullish Sunday session saw bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) extend their respective winning streaks to three sessions.
• While less hawkish Fed chatter and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered support on Sunday, geopolitics weighed on the crypto market this morning.
• The technical indicators remain bearish, with economic uncertainty, central bank monetary policy, and geopolitics ongoing crypto headwinds.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.90%. Following a 0.29% gain on Saturday, BTC ended the week up 1.65% to $19,585. Notably, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the sixteenth consecutive session while also avoiding sub-$19,000 for a second session.

A bearish morning saw BTC fall to a mid-day low of $19,086. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,136 before rallying to a late high of $19,707. BTC broke through the day’s Major Resistance Levels to wrap up the week at $19,585. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $19,515 delivered late support.

Ethereum (ETH) rallied by 3.81% on Sunday. Following a 1.33% gain on Saturday, ETH ended the week up 4.44% to $1,364.

A bearish morning saw ETH fall to a mid-day low of $1,300. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) of $1,298, ETH rallied to a late high of $1,371. ETH broke through the day’s Major Resistance Levels to end the week at $1,364. The Third Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,364 delivered late support.

While a Fed chatter and easing bets of a 75-basis point Fed rate hike in December delivered support over the weekend, geopolitics weighed on the NASDAQ 100 Mini and the crypto market this morning.

The markets reacted negatively to Xi Jinping taking his leadership into a third term, with a government stacked with loyalists. Xi’s support for Vladimir Putin, China’s position on Taiwan, and its zero-tolerance policy on COVID-19 raised immediate concerns.

However, US economic indicators could move the dial today. Private sector PMIs for October will draw plenty of interest. Following less hawkish Fed chatter on Friday, a pickup in private-sector activity would refuel bets of a 75-basis point Fed rate hike in December.

The Services PMI and sub-components, including job creation, input and output price, and new orders, should influence the crypto market the most. Economists forecast the services PMI to fall from 49.3 to 49.2 and for the Manufacturing PMI to decline from 52.0 to 51.0.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 1.07% to $19,375.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $19,262 before rising to a high of $19,615.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $19,459 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,833. However, with market angst over China politics testing investor sentiment, today’s US economic indicators need to be crypto-friendly to support a rebound.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,080 and $20,500 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $20,701.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,212 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$19,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,838.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,217.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $19,318.

The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA to deliver mixed signals.

BTC needs to move through the 200-day EMA ($19,507) to give the bulls a run at R1 ($19,833) and a return to $20,000. However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($19,318) and 50-day EMA ($19,274) would give the bears a run at S1 ($19,212).

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was down 1.14% to $1,349. A mixed morning saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,371 before falling to a low of $1,333.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid the $1,345 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,390 and $1,400. However, risk appetite will need to improve to support a breakout from the Sunday and morning high of $1,371.

In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,416 and $1,450 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,487.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,319 into play. However, barring another crypto sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,250. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,274 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,203.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat at 200-day EMA, currently at $1,347. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A breakout from the 200-day EMA ($1,347) would give the bulls a run at R1 ($1,390). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($1,315) and 50-day EMA ($1,313) would bring S1 ($1,319) and $1,300 into play.