BTC Bears Eye Sub-$29,500 as the SEC Begins the Appeal Process

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, BTC joined the broader market in the red, falling 0.51% to end the day at $30,190.
• Profit taking and SEC Court filings in the SEC v Ripple case left BTC on the back foot.
• However, the near-term technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a return to $31,500.

On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.51%. Partially reversing a 1.99% gain from Tuesday, BTC wrapped the day up at $30,190. Significantly, BTC held onto the $30,000 handle for the second time since July 23.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.56% to $30,022. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $30,243 before falling to a low of $30,020.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD sitting below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, BTC sat above the 50-day ($29,546) and 200-day ($27,284) EMAs, sending bullish near and longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA, signaling further gains.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 54.26 reading reflects bullish sentiment. The RSI signals a breakout from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to target $31,500. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring sub-$28,500 and the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC remains below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, BTC sits above the 50-day ($29,729) and 200-day ($29,659) EMAs, sending bullish near and longer-term price signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA after the Wednesday bullish cross. A hold above the 50-day EMA would support a breakout from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to target $31,500. However, a BTC fall through the EMAs would bring sub-$28,500 and the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 53.72 indicates a bullish stance, with buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the EMAs, signaling a return to $31,500.

Spot BTC ETF Chatter and US Bank Downgrades Delivered Price Support

BTC and the broader market succumbed to profit taking at the lower level of the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

Uncertainty surrounding the spot BTC ETF applications and SEC Court filings in the SEC Ripple case left BTC and the broader market in negative territory. While the SEC v Ripple case does not directly impact BTC, a stay of all proceedings pending appeal would leave the US crypto market in limbo for even longer.

On Wednesday, the SEC filed a letter outlining its basis for filing a Motion for Leave to File an Interlocutory Appeal regarding ‘Programmatic’ offers and sales to XRP buyers over trading platforms and Ripple’s Other Distributions. Significantly, the SEC is asking for the Court not to enforce the Judgment on Programmatic Sales until after an appeal.

The Day Ahead

SEC v Ripple-related chatter, ETF updates, and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will move the dial.

However, US lawmaker chatter and SEC activity would also need consideration. US lawmaker reaction to the SEC Court filing would draw interest, though both sides of the aisle would need to deliver favorable comments to support a sustainable breakout.

In the US session, investors should consider the US CPI Report. A pickup in inflationary pressure would reignite bets on a September Fed interest rate hike, which could refuel recessionary jitters.