BTC Bears Eye Sub-$29,500 on SEC and ETF Uncertainty

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, BTC rejoined the broader market, falling 0.36% to end the day at $29,899.
• Uncertainty over the BTC ETF applications, SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple ruling, and the Fed left BTC at sub-$30,000.
• The near-term technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$29,500.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.36%. Reversing a 0.37% gain from Friday, BTC ended the day at $29,899. Notably, BTC wrapped up the day at sub-$30,000 for the third time in five sessions.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.14% to $29,942. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $29,840 before rising to a high of $29,999.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD sitting below the $30,000 psychological support level and pulling back further from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

However, BTC/USD remained above the 50-day ($29,459) and 200-day ($26,828) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and longer term. Notably, the 50-day EMA continued to pull further away from the 200-day EMA, affirming the near-term bullish trend.

However, looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 49.23 reading signaled a moderately bearish outlook. The RSI points to a fall through the 50-day EMA ($29,459) to bring sub-$29,000 into play. However, a move through the 50-day EMA would give the bulls a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the BTC/USD faces strong resistance at the $30,000 psychological level. BTC/USD remains below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band and the 50-day EMA ($30,150) but above the 200-day EMA ($29,853), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed on the 200-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$29,500. However, a move through the 50-day EMA ($30,150) would support a breakout from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to target $31,500.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 45.58 indicates a bearish stance, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, signaling near-term bearish momentum and a return to sub-$29,500. A fall through the 200-day EMA ($29,853) would bring sub-$29,000 into play.

BTC in Sideways Move on ETF, SEC v Ripple, and the Fed

It was a quiet Saturday session, leaving investors to digest the news from the week. SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple Court ruling weighed on BTC and the broader crypto market.

SEC ire over the SEC v Ripple Court ruling could also influence the view on the spot BTC ETF applications that could fuel an influx of sticky institutional money.

Considering the SEC stance on the digital asset space and the regulation by-enforcement mantra, a lack of support from Democratic Party members for crypto legislation is also a headwind.

After the SEC v Ripple ruling, Republican Party members have highlighted the need for a crypto regulatory framework, which would dilute the powers of the SEC in regulating the digital asset space. Investors would likely consider the status quo as bearish.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators to distract crypto investors.

However, ETF chatter and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will need consideration. Investors should also track SEC and US lawmaker chatter.

With the Fed making its interest rate decision on Wednesday, sentiment toward the US economy and monetary policy outlook will also influence investor sentiment. The markets are betting on a final 25-basis point interest rate hike and a US soft landing, a BTC price-positive scenario.