BTC Bears Eye sub-$29,500 on US Lawmaker Chatter and SEC Plans

Key Insights:

• On Friday, BTC bucked the broader market trend, gaining 0.37% to end the day at $30,006.
• BTC gained support despite talks of an SEC appeal in the SEC v Ripple case and US lawmaker chatter.
• However, the near-term technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$29,500.

On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.37%. Reversing a 0.38% loss from Thursday, BTC ended the day at $30,006. Notably, BTC came up short of $30,500 for just the sixth time in July.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.17% to $30,056. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $30,004 before rising to a high of $30,103.

BTC Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD sit at the $30,000 psychological support level, while pulling back from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

However, BTC/USD remained above the 50-day ($29,446) and 200-day ($26,798) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and longer term. Notably, the 50-day EMA continued to pull further away from the 200-day EMA, affirming the near-term bullish trend.

However, looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 50.56 reading signaled a moderately bullish outlook. BTC must avoid the 50-day EMA ($29,446) to target the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. A fall through the 50-day EMA ($29,446) would bring sub-$29,000 into view.

BTC 4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the BTC/USD faces strong resistance at the $30,000 psychological level. BTC/USD remains below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band and the 50-day EMA ($30,201) but above the 200-day EMA ($29,855), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed on the 200-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$29,500. However, a move through the 50-day EMA ($30,201) would support a breakout from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to target $31,500.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 49.45 indicates a moderately bearish stance, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, signaling near-term bearish momentum and a return to sub-$29,500. A fall through the 200-day EMA ($29,855) would bring sub-$29,500 into play.

US Lawmaker Chatter and SEC Appeal News Tests Buyer Appetite

It was a busy session on Friday, with the crypto news wires providing direction. Hopes of US lawmakers pushing through legislation to provide a regulatory framework faded on Friday.

Democratic members of the House Agriculture Committee relayed their views on the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, saying,

“Instead of focusing on pressing Farm Bill issues, House Republicans are sprinting to provide a handout to crypto exchanges, Wall Street, and Silicon Valley venture capitalists at the expense of American consumers and retail investors.”

The Democrats responded to tweets from Hilary Allen, a professor at the American University Washington College of Law, that questioned the Republican Party push for crypto regulation over more pressing agricultural and financial issues.

On Thursday, the House Agriculture Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development Chairman Dusty Johnson, Financial Services Subcommittee on Digital Assets Chairman French Hill, and Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson introduced legislation to provide the digital asset space clarity and consistency.

The bill aims to deliver clear guidelines, allowing digital asset developers to innovate and advance currency by adhering to the rules without the ever-present threat of lawsuits from regulators.

The Financial Innovation and Technology (FIT) for the 21st Century Act provides much-a needed structure for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the SEC.

Interestingly, Hilary Allen and the Democrats questioned the motivation of the Republican Party members when the White House was actively issuing crypto-related executive orders in early 2022. In 2022, the US Administration cited national security for its involvement in the digital asset space.

News of the SEC planning to appeal the SEC v Ripple ruling was also bearish, leaving BTC short of $30,500.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Saturday session, with no US economic indicators to distract crypto investors.

However, ETF chatter and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will need consideration. Investors should also track SEC and US lawmaker chatter. Democratic Party support for either Republican bill introducing a crypto regulatory framework would provide BTC price support.

Last week, Senator Cynthia Lummis looked to leverage the SEC v Ripple ruling by touting the Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act.