BTC Bears Target Sub-$24,000 on US Crypto Market Uncertainty

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, BTC gained 1.85% to end the day at $25,611.
• US economic indicators delivered much-needed support, with US jobless claims and retail sales easing hawkish Fed bets.
• However, the technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a return to sub-$23,500.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.85%. Partially reversing a 3.09% slide from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $25,611. Significantly, BTC revisited sub-$25,000 for the second time since March.

After a mixed start to the day, BTC fell to a late morning low of $24,825. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $24,618, BTC rose to a late-session high of $25,766. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $25,893, BTC eased back to end the day at $25,611.

US Economic Indicators Deliver a Bullish Afternoon Session

It was a busy Thursday session. There was no time for the dust to settle from the hawkish Fed pause, with US jobless claims, retail sales, and the US manufacturing sector in the spotlight.

A mixed set of US economic indicators weighed on dollar appetite, driving demand for riskier assets.

US jobless claims held steady at 262k versus a forecasted decline to 250k, while retail sales unexpectedly increased by 0.3% in May. While the retail sales figures were bullish, the weaker-than-expected jobless claims provided support.

Manufacturing sector numbers also supported a July Fed pause. The all-important Philly Fed Manufacturing Index fell from -10.4 to -13.7, with the prices paid index falling from 10.9 to 10.5. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index beat forecasts, rising from -31.8 to 6.6, though unlikely to influence the Fed.

In response to the numbers, the NASDAQ Composite Index ended the day up 1.15%. This morning, the NASDAQ mini was down 14 points.

Blackrock Delivers Positive News

Amidst intensifying crypto scrutiny, Blackrock Inc. (BLK) provided some crypto market cheer on Thursday. The fund manager filed the necessary documentation with the SEC to launch the iShares Bitcoin Trust, which seeks to reflect the performance of bitcoin and provides an alternative method of achieving investment exposure to bitcoin through the securities market.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Friday session. Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectation figures will draw interest. A pickup in consumer sentiment would be crypto-friendly. However, investors should also consider Fed chatter, with FOMC members Bullard and Waller speaking today.

While the US economic calendar will draw interest, the market focus will remain on the SEC.

SEC v Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news and updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case will move the dial.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.22% to $25,555. A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an opening price of $25,610 to a low of $25,555.

BTC Technical Indicators

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bearish signals. BTC sat below the 50-day EMA ($25,912). The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, sending bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($25,912) and R1 ($25,976) would give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($26,267) and R2 ($26,342). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($25,912) would leave S1 ($25,035) and sub-$25,000 in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

Resistance & Support Levels

BTC needs to avoid the $25,401 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $25,976 and $26,000. A move through the Thursday high of $25,766 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires and US economic indicators should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $26,342 and resistance at $26,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,283.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,035 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$24,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $24,460 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $23,519.