BTC Bulls and a Return to $32,000 Hinged on Spot ETF Progress

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, BTC bucked the broader market trend, gaining 0.18% to end the day at $30,463.
• It was a range-bound start to the weekend as investors considered the latest SEC v Ripple Court ruling and ETF-related news.
• The near-term technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$30,000.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.18%. Following a 3.57% slide from Friday, BTC ended the day at $30,463.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.28% to $30,378. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $30,496 before falling to a low of $30,214.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD hover below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band but continued to avoid sub-$30,000.

BTC/USD remained above the 50-day ($29,288) and 200-day ($26,598) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and long term.

Notably, the 50-day EMA continued to pull away from the 200-day EMA and reflected bullish momentum.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 53.69 reading signaled a bullish outlook and aligned with the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, supporting a move through the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to retarget $32,000.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the BTC/USD faces strong resistance at the $30,500 psychological level. BTC/USD sits below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band and the 50-day EMA ($30,626) but above the 200-day EMA ($29,732), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed on the 200-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$30,000. However, a move through the 50-day EMA ($30,626) would support a breakout from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to target $32,000.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 43.12 indicates a bearish stance and aligns with the 50-day EMA, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI signals near-term bearish momentum and a return to sub-$30,000.

ETF and SEC v Ripple Chatter Leave BTC Range-Bound

It was a quiet Saturday session, with no external market forces or crypto events to move the dial. The lack of market-moving influences left investors to continue digesting the SEC v Ripple Court rulings and catch up on other crypto-related news.

Appeal chatter continued to do the rounds after the SEC v Ripple Court ruling. However, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse had a positive spin for investors, saying it would take years for the SEC to file an appeal, and any SEC appeal would cement Judge Torres’s ruling on Programmatic XRP Sales.

ETF-related news also grabbed the headlines, with the SEC accepting the ETF applications from Blackrock (BLK) and several other ETFs, including Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust, WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust, VanEck Bitcoin Trust, and Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin Trust.

While the news is positive for the crypto industry, the ETF-related updates coincided with the SEC v Ripple Court ruling that could incentivize the SEC to continue taking a hard line on spot BTC ETFs despite approving the leveraged Volatility Shares Trust 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Sunday session, with no external market forces to impact investor sentiment. However, investors should continue to monitor the crypto news wires for SEC v Ripple-related chatter and significant crypto events.

After the SEC v Ripple ruling, ETF chatter, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will also be focal points.