BTC Bulls Target a Return to $30,000 on First Republic Bank Woes

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, BTC saw red for the second consecutive session, falling by 0.29% to end the day at $29,253.
• Recessionary jitters resonated from Friday, with no crypto events to draw investor interest.
• However, the technical indicators remained bullish, signaling a breakout from $30,000.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.29%. Following a 0.48% loss on Friday, BTC ended the day at $29,253. Despite the bearish session, BTC avoided sub-$29,000 for the first time since April 18.

After a mixed start to the day, BTC rose to an early morning high of $29,467. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $29,648, BTC fell to a late afternoon low of $29,059. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $28,970, BTC revisited the $29,300 handle before ending the day at $29,253.

Recessionary Jitters and Fed Fear Left BTC in the Red

It was a quiet Saturday session, with no economic indicators, corporate earnings, or crypto events for investors to consider.

The lack of main events or external market forces left the US economic indicators from the week to resonate. Weaker-than-expected economic growth, stalling personal spending, and sticky inflation were bearish for investors.

Despite the weaker growth and cracks in the US economy, the Fed remains on track to raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, adding to the bearish sentiment.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 83.9% chance of a 25-basis point interest rate hike on Wednesday, unchanged from Friday. However, the probability of a 25-basis point interest rate hike in June rose from 23.9% to 26.8%. A Fed interest rate hike on Wednesday, with hints of more hikes, would be a bearish crypto scenario.

Amazon.com (AMZN) continued to weigh on buyer appetite after warning that its cloud business growth could slow further in response to businesses tightening their purse strings.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Sunday session. Investors have no US economic indicators to consider, leaving updates on First Republic Bank (FRC) to influence.

Overnight, news hit the wires that US regulators are attempting to avert a banking crisis by selling the beleaguered bank to a large US bank. JP Morgan Chase (JPM) is reportedly the front-runner. Failure to find a buyer by this afternoon could see First Republic Bank suffer the same fate as Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank.

In the global financial crisis, JP Morgan Chase was instrumental in averting a more sinister crisis by acquiring Bear Sterns and Washington Mutual.

While investors track news updates on First Republic Bank, SEC v Ripple case-related chatter and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news would also move the dial. However, investors should track regulatory activity and US lawmaker chatter throughout the session.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.31% to $29,161. A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an opening price of $29,252 to a low of $29,150.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

BTC needs to move through the $29,260 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $29,460 and the Saturday high of $29,467. A return to $29,400 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $29,668 and resistance at $30,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $30,076.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $29,052 in play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$28,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $28,852 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $28,444.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was bullish signals. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($28,803). The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($28,803) would support a breakout from R1 ($29,460) to target R2 ($29,668) and $30,000. However, a fall through S1 ($29,052) would bring S2 ($28,852) and the 50-day EMA ($28,803) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.