BTC Bulls to Target $31,000 as IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings Begin

Key Insights:

• BTC extended the winning streak to four sessions on Tuesday, rising by 1.95% to end the session at $30,190.
• Fed monetary policy bets and SEC silence delivered the BTC return to $30,000.
• The technical indicators are bullish, signaling a run to $35,000.

On Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.95%. Following a 4.57% rally on Monday, BTC ended the day at $30,190. BTC held onto the $30,000 handle for the first time since June 2022.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $29,579. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $28,591, BTC rose to an early evening high of $30,494. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $30,179 to end the day at $30.190.

Fed Bets and SEC Silence Delivered $30,000

It was a quiet Tuesday session, with no US economic indicators to influence investor sentiment. The lack of stats left the markets to continue betting on a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in May.

According to the CME FedWatchTool, there is a 69.2% chance of a 25-basis interest rate hike in May, up from 44.8% on April 4.

The shift in sentiment toward the Fed weighed on the NASDAQ Composite Index, which fell by 0.43% on Tuesday.

Other contributory factors to the return to $30,000 included SEC silence ahead of the April 18 digital assets sub-committee hearing on Capitol Hill.

Disagreements between SEC Chair Gary Gensler and CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam on crypto classifications as securities and commodities should give the hearing greater attention.

Judges presiding over crypto-related cases have highlighted issues that crypto players face. The Ripple defense team referenced Voyager Digital presiding Judge Wiles in the SEC v Ripple case, saying,

“Judge Wiles found that cryptocurrency market participants operate in a regulatory environment that at best can be described as highly uncertain, in which regulators themselves cannot seem to agree as to whether cryptocurrencies are commodities that may be subject to regulation by the CFTC or whether they are securities that are subject to securities laws, or neither, or even on what criteria should be applied in making the decision.”

Disagreements among regulators, favorable Judge comments, and increased crypto asset support beyond the US borders have muted the effects of the SEC’s regulation by enforcement.

The Day Ahead

It is a busy day on the US economic calendar. The US CPI Report and the FOMC meeting minutes will influence the afternoon session.

After the US Jobs Report, the markets are betting on a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in May. The CPI Report and the FOMC meeting minutes could cement an interest rate hike to 5.25%.

While the CPI Report will likely be the key driver, investors should monitor the crypto news wires for regulatory activity and lawmaker chatter.

The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings will get underway today. Cryptos are likely to be a hot topic. Alongside the US Administration, the IMF has taken an anti-crypto stance, with calls for increased regulatory oversight likely to be a common theme.

However, updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case and Binance and Coinbase-related news will need consideration.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.18% to $30,243. A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise from an opening price of $30,189 to an early morning high of $30,310.

BTC Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $30,088 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $30,596. A move through the Tuesday high of $30,494 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires and the US CPI Report should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $31,003. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $31,918.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $29,681 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$29,500 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $29,173. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $28,258.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($28,647). The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($28,647) would support a breakout from R1 ($30,596) to target R2 ($31,003). However, a fall through S1 ($29,681) would bring S2 ($29,173) and the 50-day EMA ($28,647) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.