BTC Bulls to Target $31,500 on Improved US Economic Outlook

Key Insights:

• On Tuesday, BTC ended a three-day losing streak, gaining 1.44% to end the day at $30,771.
• US economic indicators and the NASDAQ Composite Index provided afternoon support.
• The technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a return to $32,500.

On Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.44%. Reversing a 0.68% fall from Monday, BTC ended the day at $30,771. Significantly, BTC ended a three-day losing streak.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to a first-hour low of $30,289. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $29,964, BTC rose to an early afternoon high of $31,085. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $30,724 to end the day at $30,771.

China Stimulus Hopes and US Economic Indicators Delivered Support

It was a busier Tuesday on the US economic calendar. US consumer confidence and core durable goods orders drew interest. A sharp increase in the CB Consumer Confidence Index delivered a session high.

The CB Consumer Confidence Index increased from 102.5 to 109.7 in June versus a forecasted 104.0. US core durable goods orders were also bullish, rising by 0.6% in May versus a 0.6% decline in April. Economists forecast a 0.1% decline.

Significantly, the numbers eased the immediate fear of an economic recession while raising bets on a July and Fed rate hike.

Earlier in the day, the hopes of further Beijing stimulus to reboot the Chinese economy set the mood.

The upbeat numbers supported a much-needed bullish session for the NASDAQ Composite Index, which gained 1.65%. However, the NASDAQ mini was down 47.25 points this morning.

From the crypto market, news hit the wires of Fidelity planning to launch a Bitcoin spot ETF.

A Fidelity move into the crypto space would be bullish, with Fidelity looking to join Blackrock (BLK) in giving institutional investors exposure to cryptocurrencies. Fidelity is not alone in following in Blackrock’s footsteps. Invesco (IVZ) is among the big names to refile spot BTC ETF applications.

The Day Ahead

It is a quieter Wednesday, with no US economic indicators to draw interest. With no economic indicators to consider, Fed Chair Powell will garner plenty of interest. However, the Fed Chair must deviate from the script to move the dial. Until now, Powell has maintained his two-rate hike outlook.

While the Fed Chair will draw interest, investors should monitor the crypto news wires for SEC v Ripple case-related news. A Ripple victory would raise the hope of a shift in the US regulatory landscape and an end to the SEC’s regulation-by-enforcement mantra.

Beyond the SEC v Ripple case, Coinbase (COIN) and Binance-related news will need consideration.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.23% to $30,699. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $30,792 before falling to a low of $30,675.

BTC Technical Indicators

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($29,791). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($29,791) would support a move through R1 ($31,141) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($31,511). However, a fall through S1 ($30,345) would bring S2 ($29,919) and the 50-day EMA ($29,791) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal.

Resistance & Support Levels