It is a quiet day ahead for BTC, with the US markets closed for the Fourth of July holiday. The bulls will be looking to leverage of the ETH-fueled rally.
On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.94%. Reversing a 0.02% loss from Sunday, BTC ended the day at $31,225. Significantly, BTC held onto the $31,000 handle for the first time since May 2022.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to a first-hour low of $30,601. Steering clear of the 50-day EMA at $30,601, BTC rose to an early evening high of $31,433. BTC broke through the $30,800 – $31,000 resistance band to end the session at $31,225.
This morning, BTC was flat at $31,226.
The Daily Chart showed a BTC/USD hold above the psychological $31,000 support level as the markets responded to the latest ETF news. BTC/USD also remained above the 200-day ($26,102) and 50-day ($28,540) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and long term.
Notably, the 50-day EMA continued to pull away from the 200-day EMA and reflected bullish momentum.
Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 70.13 reading signaled overbought territory but aligned with the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, supporting a breakout from the higher level of the $30,000 – $31,500 resistance band.
Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the BTC/USD faces strong resistance at the $31,500 psychological level. BTC/USD continued to sit above the 200-day ($28,818) and 50-day ($30,476) EMAs. Significantly, the 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 200-day EMA, signaling another test of the higher level of the $30,000 – $31,500 resistance band.
BTC/USD would avoid the 50-day EMA to break out from $31,500 and target $32,000.
The 14-4H RSI reading of 65.62 indicates a bullish stance and aligns with the EMAs, with buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. Significantly, the RSI signals near-term bullish momentum and a breakout from $31,500.
It was a busier Monday session, with manufacturing sector PMIs from China and the US in focus. Better-than-expected manufacturing PMI numbers from China and hopes of a more substantial stimulus package supported riskier assets early in the Monday session.
However, investors brushed aside disappointing US PMI numbers, with Blackrock Inc. (BLK) news delivering support.
On Monday, NASDAQ Stock Market LLC refiled the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF application with the SEC. Blackrock noted that a surveillance agreement with Coinbase (COIN) would address the SEC’s surveillance concerns highlighted last week.
The news was enough to support a BTC breakout, with no other crypto events to move the dial.
It is a quiet Tuesday session, with the US markets closed for the Fourth of July holiday. Lower trading volumes and a lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto news wires.
Bullish momentum and a return to $31,500 would support a breakout session. However, the crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to deliver $32,000.
Investors should monitor ETF, Binance, and SEC v Ripple-related news and SEC chatter.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.