BTC Eyes $60K Amid Receding Recession Fears and Positive ETF Market Flow Trends

BTC Tests $60,000 Resistance

On Friday, August 16, BTC advanced by 2.31%, reversing a 1.94% loss from Thursday to close at $58,916. The total crypto market cap increased by 1.42% to $2.028 trillion.

US Recession Fears Subside

US economic indicators drove BTC demand on Friday, with consumer sentiment improving in August. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased from 66.4 in July to 67.8 in August. Upward trends in consumer confidence may support spending, which contributes over 60% to GDP.

BTC trailed the Nasdaq Composite Index, which ended the Friday session up 0.21% to 17,632. While BTC gained 0.33% from Monday, August 12, to Friday, August 16, the Nasdaq rallied 5.29%.

Upbeat economic data countered oversupply risks from the US government’s Silk Road stash.

Flow trends for the US BTC-spot ETF market reflected the positive investor sentiment toward the US economy.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Inflows Provide Late Support

US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends for Friday contributed to BTC’s positive Friday session.

According to Farside Investors:

• On Friday, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows of $72.9 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported net inflows of $13.4 million.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) had net inflows of $12.0 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $61.3 million.

Excluding flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market recorded net inflows of $15.5 million on Friday.

BTC supply-demand trends remain crucial, with Mt. Gox being another possible source of oversupply risk, holding 46,164 BTC to repay creditors.

Expert Views on Crypto-Spot ETFs

ETF Store President Nate Geraci commented on MicroStrategy’s leveraged BTC ETF, saying,

“You can now buy a 1.75X leveraged MicroStrategy ETF… Which MSTR itself is basically a leveraged play on btc. But we still don’t have in-kind creation & redemption for spot btc ETFs. Or options trading on spot btc ETFs. Make it make sense.”

The SEC approved the Defiance MicroStrategy ETF (MSTX) on Wednesday, the first levered single-stock ETF focusing on MicroStrategy (MSTR).

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted the launch of MSTX on Thursday, August 15, saying,

“Defiance launching 1.75x Microstrategy ETF MSTX tmrw which, even tho it’s ‘only’ 1.75x (they prob tried 2x but SEC pushed back) it will be the most volatile ETF you can get in US market (equiv to 13x SPY) edging out MSOX (2x weed), a big step in the hot sauce arms race.”

Investors should remain alert amid possible changes to supply-demand trends. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage exposures to BTC and the broader crypto market.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovered below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bearish price trends.

A break above the 200-day EMA could signal a move toward the $60,365 resistance level. Furthermore, a breakout from the $60,365 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA.

Supply-demand trends and SEC activity require consideration on Saturday.

On the other hand, a break below $57,500 could give the bears a run at the $55,000 handle.

With a 45.08 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC could fall to the $55,000 handle before entering oversold territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remained well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.

An ETH break above the $2,664 resistance level would support a move toward $2,800. Furthermore, a breakout from $2,800 could give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA and the $3,033 resistance level. Selling pressure could intensify at the $3,033 resistance level. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the resistance level.

US ETH-spot ETF market flow trends also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH drop below $2,500 could bring the $2,403 support level into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 38.89, suggests an ETH fall to the $2,403 support level before entering oversold territory.