BTC Faces Critical Week: US Government’s $13B BTC Stockpile and Recession Jitters Loom

BTC Falls Short of $65,000 as Market Enters a Pivotal Week

On Sunday, August 25, BTC slipped by 0.02%, partially reversing a 0.10% gain from the previous session, closing at $64,086. BTC climbed to a high of $64,949 before retreating.

BTC Awaits Fresh Catalyst After Failed Breakout from $65,000

This week could be pivotal for the global markets as the dust settles from the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Concerns about the US economy may test buyer demand for riskier assets as investors await crucial US economic data.

Initial jobless claims figures on Thursday, August 29, could give investors key insights into the US labor market. An unexpected spike in jobless claims might retrigger US recession fears and impact BTC demand. A deteriorating labor market could signal more aggressive Fed rate cuts to bolster the US economy.

Recession jitters may overshadow the boost looser monetary policy usually provides market risk sentiment.

The US Personal Income and Outlays Report will influence the Fed rate path on Friday. An unexpected fall in personal income and spending could spook investors.

Furthermore, recession fears could significantly impact US BTC-spot ETF demand. The US economic calendar and the Fed rate path have influenced US BTC-spot ETF flow trends. Moreover, inflows have been crucial in supporting BTC price trends, with ETFs absorbing BTC supply from the German government, Mt. Gox, and the US government.

Waning demand for US BTC-spot ETFs could spotlight the US government’s BTC stockpile. Conversely, a sharp increase in US BTC-spot ETF demand could push BTC toward $70,000.

US Government Holds $13 Billion in BTC

Oversupply risk remains a BTC headwind, with the US government holding 203,239 BTC, equivalent to $13.01 billion.

The Democratic Party’s anti-crypto stance exposes BTC to the risk of sizeable sell-orders, possibly disrupting the supply-demand balance. In July, the US government transferred $2 billion in BTC, sparking fears of an oversupply. The transfer happened after Donald Trump pledged to retain all government-held BTC if elected.

Investors should remain alert amid possible changes to supply-demand trends. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage exposure to BTC and the broader crypto market.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovered above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A breakout from $64,000 could support a return to $65,000. Furthermore, a break above $65,000 could give the bulls a run at the $69,000 resistance level.

US BTC-spot ETF market-related chatter, sentiment toward the Fed rate path, and the US economy require consideration.

Conversely, a drop below the $63,500 support level could bring the 50-day EMA into play. A fall through the 50-day EMA may give the bears a run at the $60,365 support level and the 200-day EMA.

With a 58.32 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC could climb to the $69,000 resistance level before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.

An ETH return to $2,800 would support a move toward the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, a breakout from the 50-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA and the $3,033 resistance level. However, selling pressure may intensify at the $3,033 resistance level. The 200-day EMA is confluent with the resistance level.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related news also requires consideration.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $2,664 support level may signal a drop to $2,500. A fall through $2,500 may bring the $2,403 support level into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 49.84, suggests an ETH fall to the $2,403 support level before entering oversold territory.