BTC Faces the Risk of Sub-$28,500 on Gensler Interview and ETF Uncertainty

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, BTC fell by 0.44% to end the day at $29,328.
• SEC Chair Gensler chatter raised uncertainty about the approval of the BTC ETFs, weighing on the broader market.
• The near-term technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$28,500.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.44%. Reversing a 0.44% gain from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $29,328. Significantly, BTC came up short of $30,000 for the third consecutive session.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.07% to $29,349. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $29,311 before rising to a high of $29,401.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD sitting below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. BTC also fell through the 50-day EMA ($29,448) while holding above the 200-day EMA ($26,953), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA narrowed on the 200-day EMA, supporting further losses.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 43.45 reading signaled a bearish outlook. The RSI signals a BTC fall to sub-$28,500 to bring the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view. However, a move through the 50-day EMA ($29,448) would give the bulls a run at $30,000 and the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC remains below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band and the 50-day ($29,666) and 200-day ($28,759) EMAs, signaling bearish price momentum.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA pulled back from the 200-day EMA after the bearish cross, signaling a return to sub-$28,500. However, a BTC move through the 50-day ($29,666) and 200-day ($29,759) EMAs would support a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 43.61 indicates a bearish stance, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, signaling near-term bearish momentum and a return to sub-$28,500.

Gary Gensler Interview Raises Doubts about BTC ETF Approvals

It was a busy Thursday session. Investors brushed aside better-than-expected US GDP and jobless claims numbers that removed the threat of a hard landing.

However, SEC Chair Gary Gensler influenced investor sentiment, with the SEC Chair talking crypto with Bloomberg.

The SEC Chair had this to say about crypto investing,

“This field of crypto investing, a lot of investors should be aware it’s not only a highly speculative asset class. It’s also one that they currently should not assume that they’re getting the protections of the securities laws even though the securities laws apply to many of those tokens without prejudging…”

Gensler went on to say,

“The platforms often are comingling and trading against you and have market makers on the other side of the trades. This is a field rife with fraud, rife with hucksters, and there are good faith actors as well but there are far too many that aren’t.”

While the views of the SEC Chair tend to have a limited impact on BTC price action, the comments raised uncertainty about the willingness of the SEC to approve the pending spot BTC ETF applications. BTC has fallen back from the $31,000 handle as investors grapple with the implications of the SEC v Ripple Court ruling on the SEC view of spot BTC ETFs.

The Day Ahead

It is another busy day for the crypto market. SEC v Ripple chatter, ETF updates, and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will need consideration,

However, US inflation numbers could move the dial this afternoon. While BTC and the broader market have ignored the Fed and recent economic indicators, hotter-than-expected inflation numbers could raise the threat of a Fed-fueled hard landing.