BTC Fear & Greed Holds Steady on BTC Return to $21,000

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) rallied by 3.41% to end the day at $20,790. Notably, BTC visited $21,000 for the first time since September 13.
• Market sentiment towards the Fed Pivot delivered another breakout session for BTC and the broader market.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index consolidated Tuesday’s exit from the Extreme Fear zone with a modest decline from 33/100 to 32/100.

On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 3.41%. Following a 3.95% rally on Tuesday, BTC ended the day at $20,790. Notably, BTC visited $21,000 for the first time since September 13 (US CPI report for August) before easing back to wrap up the day at $20,000 for the second time since October 5.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early morning low of $20,077. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,426, BTC surged to an early afternoon high of $21,022. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level at $20,607 to test resistance at $21,000 before easing back.

The US economic calendar was on the quiet side mid-week, leaving bets of a Fed pivot to drive crypto demand. BTC and the broader market decoupled from the NASDAQ 100, which suffered at the hands of disappointing corporate earnings.

Microsoft Corp (MSFT) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) delivered disappointing earnings and warnings to leave the NASDAQ 100 in the red.

Going into the Thursday session, the FedWatch Tool had the probability of November and December rate hikes at 85.4% and 38.9%, respectively. One week ago, the likelihood of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 77.0%.

Later today, US economic indicators will be back in the spotlight. Q3 GDP, inflation, and jobless claims will give the markets further clues on what to expect from the Fed. This morning, the NASDAQ 100 mini was up 32.75 points.

This morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 51.25 points, delivering crypto support ahead of today’s stats.

The Fear & Greed Index Slips to 32/100, But Supports a BTC Run at $25,000

This morning, the Fear & Greed Index slipped from 33/100 to 32/100. Despite the decline, the Index remained within the Fear zone, consolidating Tuesday’s exit from the Extreme Fear zone.

A shift in sentiment toward Fed monetary policy eased investor fears ahead of today’s data dump. Later today, a pickup in US inflation and a fall in jobless claims, coupled with better-than-expected Q3 GDP numbers, could refuel fears of a hawkish December move.

The Index will need to target 40/100 and the neutral zone to support a BTC bearish trend reversal. However, a fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.06% to $20,777. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $20,861 before falling to a low of $20,625.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $20,630 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $21,182. A BTC return to $21,000 would signal another breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $21,575 and $22,000 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $22,520.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,237 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$20,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,685. Later today, BTC movement will be US data dependent.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,740.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,684.

After Wednesday’s bullish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA closing in on the 200-day EMA to deliver bullish signals.

A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would signal another breakout session. However, a BTC fall through S1 ($20,237) would bring S2 ($19,685) and the EMAs into view.