BTC Fear & Greed Index Avoids Extreme Fear as BTC Moves Sideways

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.10% to end the day at $16,847.
• A lack of external market forces and crypto news left BTC in another range-bound session. BTC traded within a $151 band.
• The Fear & Greed Index slipped from 29/100 to 28/100 on BTC continuing to fall short of $17,000.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.10%. Partially reversing a 0.37% gain from Saturday, BTC ended the week up 0.55% to $16,847. Notably, BTC failed to revisit $17,000 for the fifth consecutive session and saw red for the fifth session of the week.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early morning high of $16,874. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,903, BTC slid to an early afternoon low of $16,723. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,814 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,863 before a late recovery to end the day at $16,847.

Trading Volumes Leave Bitcoin in a Range-Bound Holiday Session

It was a quiet Sunday session, with investors sitting on the sidelines over the holidays. Lower trading volumes delivered another range-bound session, with BTC trading within a $151 band.

There were no crypto news stories to provide direction on Sunday, with traffic on the lighter side over the holidays. However, regulatory risk has picked up in the wake of the FTX collapse, leaving uncertainty as the markets prepare for a likely wave of regulatory reforms.

Last week, SEC Chair Gary Gensler vowed to target crypto firms that do not adhere to securities laws. The SEC Chair said that Proof-of-Reserves are not enough to protect investors. After the embarrassment of the FTX collapse and FTX links to SEC staff, Gensler also said, “the agency’s patience is wearing thin for digital assets and other firms that shirk its regulations.”

Today, there are no US economic indicators to provide direction, leaving the crypto news wires to influence. The US markets are closed today.

The Fear & Greed Index Slips from 29/100 to 28/100 on BTC Struggles

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index fell from 29/100 to 28/100, with another bearish BTC session weighing. While ending the week in positive territory, BTC saw red in five of the seven sessions, with Fed fear, economic uncertainty, and regulatory risk testing investor sentiment.

It could be another range-bound session today, with the major markets closed for the holidays. However, the crypto news wires could influence, with another BTC loss likely to weigh on the Index.

Avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key near-term. The bulls will need to target the pre-FTX collapse November 6 high of 40/100 to support a BTC run at $20,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.32% to $16,901. A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise from an early low of $16,843 to a high of $16,914. The First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,906 capped the upside.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $16,815 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,906 and the morning high of $16,914. A hold onto the $16,900 handle would signal a bullish session. However, the crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,966 and resistance at $17,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,117.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,755 into play. Barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,600. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,664 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $16,513.

An adverse crypto market event would bring sub-$16,000 into play.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, BTC sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $16,938. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A move through R1 ($16,906) and the 100-day EMA ($16,938) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($16,966) and $17,000. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($16,877) would bring the Major Support Levels into view.