BTC Fear & Greed Index Eases to 30/100 as BTC Falls Short of $21,000

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) slid by 2.35% to end the day at $20,301. Notably, BTC fell short of $21,000 while wrapping up the day at $20,000 for the third consecutive session.
• US economic indicators and corporate earnings left BTC and the broader crypto market in negative territory.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index responded to the bearish session, falling from 32/100 to 30/100.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 2.35%. Partially reversing a 3.41% rally from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $20,301. Notably, BTC wrapped up the day at $20,000 for the third time since October 5 while falling short of $21,000.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early morning high of $20,892. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $21,182, BTC slid to a late low of $20,191. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,237. However, steering clear of sub-$20,000, BTC partially recovered to end the day at $20,301.

After a quiet morning session, US economic indicators and corporate earnings delivered a choppy afternoon session.

In Q3, the US economy expanded by 2.6% versus the 0.6% contraction in Q2. Economists forecast 2.4% growth. The better-than-expected headline figure delivered initial support before a reversal.

However, US corporate earnings had a more material impact. Amazon.com (AMZN) and Meta (META) delivered gloomy outlooks to send BTC and the NASDAQ into the red. The NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.63% on Thursday.

Later today, US economic indicators will be back in the spotlight. Inflation, personal spending, and consumer sentiment will give the markets further clues on what to expect from the Fed. This morning, the NASDAQ 100 mini was down 85 points.

The Fear & Greed Index Slips to 30/100 as BTC Falls Short of $21,000

This morning, the Fear & Greed Index fell from 32/100 to 30/100. Despite the decline, the Index remained within the Fear zone. US corporate earnings and Fed policy uncertainty contributed to the modest decline.

However, the Index avoided sub-30/100, with the markets still betting on a December Fed pivot.

Going into the Friday session, the FedWatch Tool had the probability of November and December rate hikes at 88.5% and 34.1%, respectively. One week ago, the likelihood of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 75.3%.

The Index will need to target 40/100 and the neutral zone to support a BTC bearish trend reversal. However, a fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.14% to $20,330. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $20,166 before rising to a high of $20,339.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $20,461 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,732 and the Thursday high of $20,892. A BTC return to $20,500 would signal a possible breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $21,162 and $21,500 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $21,863.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,031 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$20,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,760. Later today, BTC movement will be US data dependent, however.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $19,059.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,864.

After Wednesday’s bullish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA converging on the 200-day EMA to deliver bullish signals.

A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would signal another breakout session. However, a BTC fall through S1 ($20,031) would bring the 50-day EMA ($19,864) and S2 ($19,760) into view.