BTC Fear & Greed Index Holds as BTC Bears Target $18,500

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.04% to $19,132. Despite a second day in the red, BTC continued to avoid sub-$19,000.
• Market angst over inflation and Fed plans to bring inflation to target weighed on riskier assets, with hawkish Fed chatter adding further pressure.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index held steady at 23/100 despite the bearish session, reflecting investor resilience.

On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.04%. Following a 1.13% loss on Tuesday, BTC ended the day at $19,132. Notably, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the twelfth consecutive session while avoiding a return to sub-$19,000 for a fourth session.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early morning high of $19,361. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,662, BTC slid to an early afternoon low of $19,081. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,053, BTC revisited $19,300 before falling back into the red.

There were no US economic indicators to influence the Fed’s policy goals, leaving stats from Europe and FOMC member chatter to provide direction.

Inflation figures for the UK and the Eurozone reflected persistent inflationary pressures despite efforts to curb inflation. The numbers weighed on market risk sentiment.

FOMC member Neel Kashkari added to the bearish mood. Known to be a dove, Kashkari spoke of inflation having further upside and labor market conditions remaining robust, supporting aggressive policy moves.

BTC tracked the NASDAQ into the red. This morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was down 56.25 points. Later today, US economic indicators will provide direction. Philly Fed Manufacturing and jobless claims will draw interest along with Fed chatter.

The Fear & Greed Index Defies Gravity as BTC Sees Another Loss

Today, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 23/100. The Index defied gravity for a second session, with BTC avoiding sub-$19,000 likely to be a factor.

While Fed fear continues to grip the crypto world, the markets have baked in 75-basis point rate hikes in November and December. The Index could break out of the Extreme Fear zone should bets of a hawkish December move subside.

For the bulls, the Index will need to continue avoiding sub-20/100 to support a shift in sentiment. However, a fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.81% to $18,977. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early morning high of $19,171 before falling to a low of $18,900.

BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,022 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,911 before a partial recovery.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through S1 and the $19,381 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,302 and the Wednesday high of $19,361. BTC would need the support of the NASDAQ 100 Mini to break out from the morning high of $19,171.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,471 and $19,500 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $19.751.

Failure to move through S1 and the pivot would leave the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,811 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$18,500. The Third Major Support Level (S3) at $18,631 should limit the downside.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,310.

The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA to deliver bearish signals.

BTC needs to move through R1 ($19,302) and the 50-day EMA ($19,310) to give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($19,374) and R2 ($19,471). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($19,310) would leave S2 ($18,911) in play.