BTC Fear & Greed Index Holds as the NASDAQ Composite Index Falls Again

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.29% to end a four-day losing streak.
• While the NASDAQ Composite Index saw red, weaker US economic indicators provided BTC price support.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index held steady at 30/100, supported by BTC avoiding sub-$20,000.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.29%. Partially reversing a 1.63% loss from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $20,223. Notably, BTC ended a four-day losing streak while avoiding sub-$20,000 for the ninth day in a row.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to a mid-morning high of $20,404. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,629, BTC fell to a mid-day low of $20,052. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,900, BTC revisited $20,356 before easing back.

US economic indicators delivered BTC price support.

In October, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell from 56.7 to 54.4. Economists forecast a decline to 55.5.

Sub-components of the Index were mixed. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index fell from 53.0 to 49.1. However, the Prices Index rose from 68.7 to 70.7.

Other stats included the jobless claims and unit labor cost numbers, which were crypto-positive. Unit labor costs rose by 3.5% in Q3, down from 8.9% in Q2, with initial jobless claims seeing a modest decline from 218k to 217k.

While the stats were crypto-friendly, Fed Chair Powell’s speech continued to test buyer appetite. On Thursday, the NASDAQ Composite Index fell by 1.73% as the markets responded further to Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday.

Today, the US jobs report will have a material impact on the NASDAQ Composite Index and the crypto market.

BTC’s sensitivity to US economic indicators and the FED leaves the correlation with the NASDAQ Composite Index in place. This morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 0.5 points.

The Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady as BTC Avoids Sub-$20,000

This morning, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 30/100 for a third session. The Index avoided sub-30 despite the NASDAQ Composite Index falling for a fourth session. While falling short of $21,000, BTC continued to avoid sub-$20,000, suggesting a bottoming out.

Weaker-than-expected US economic indicators delivered support to BTC and the Index. However, Fed fear continues to leave the Index in the Fear zone and BTC at sub-$21,000.

The Index will need to target 40/100 and the neutral zone to support a BTC bearish trend reversal. A fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.03% to $20,230. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $20,206 before rising to a high of $20,230.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $20,226 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,401 and the Thursday high of $20,404. A return to $20,300 would signal a possible breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,578 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $20,930. Price movement will hinge on US economic indicators.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,049 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$19,750. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,874 should limit the downside. However, the US Jobs Report could send BTC into another slide.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $19,522.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $20,120. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA to deliver mixed signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($20,338) would give the bulls a run at R1 ($20,401) and $20,500. However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($20,120) would bring S1 ($20,049) and the 200-day EMA ($19,939) into view.