BTC Fear & Greed Index Holds at 24/100 for a Second Consecutive Session

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) saw red for a second consecutive session, falling by 0.60% to $19,071.
• The bearish sentiment from Friday spilled over to the weekend, with Fed fear leaving BTC on the back foot.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index held steady at 24/100 for a second consecutive session.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.60%. Following a 1.03% loss on Friday, BTC ended the day at $19,071. Notably, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the eighth consecutive session while revisiting sub-$19,000.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early morning high of $19,227. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,724, BTC fell to a late low of $18,991. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,868, BTC partially recovered to end the day at $19,071.

There were no events to shift investor sentiment from Friday’s bearish session, leaving BTC on the back foot. Fed fear lingered throughout the Saturday session, with BTC continuing to fall short of $20,000.

US economic indicators from the last two weeks have pushed up bets of 75-basis point rate hikes in November and December.

According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 75-basis point hike in November stood at 97.2% and 69.8% for December. Last week, the chance of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 23.4%.

With BTC and the broader crypto market tracking the NASDAQ 100, we expect the NASDAQ Mini to influence in the final hour (UTC).

The Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady Despite BTC Fall to Sub-$19,000

Today, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 24/100. A bearish BTC session failed to send the Index to sub-20 for a second consecutive session. The hold at 24/100 provided further evidence of a BTC bottoming out. On Saturday, BTC briefly revisited sub-$19,000 before recovering, a range-bound session coming despite the increased bets of hawkish Fed moves in November and December.

For the bulls, the Index will need to continue avoiding sub-20/100 to support a shift in sentiment. However, a fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.18% to $19,105. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $19,067 before rising to a high of $19,115.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $19,096 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,202 and the Saturday high of $19,227. A return to $19,200 would signal a bullish session. However, following the US economic indicators from the week, crypto news would have to deliver support.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,332 and resistance at $19,500 would likely cap the upside. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $19,568.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,966 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,860 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,624.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,304.

The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA to deliver bearish signals.

BTC needs to move through R1 ($19,202) to target the 50-day EMA ($19,304) and R2 ($19,332). However, a failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($19,353) would give the bears a run at S1 ($18,966). The 200-day EMA sits at $19,665.