BTC Fear & Greed Index Holds at 29/100 Despite BTC Fall to Sub-$16,500

Key Insights:

• On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.84% to end the day at $16,447.
• Fed fear reignited recessionary jitters, sending the NASDAQ Index and BTC into negative territory.
• The Fear & Greed Index held steady at 29/100, reflecting investor support at current BTC price levels.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.84%. Following a 0.23% loss on Sunday, BTC ended the day at $16,447. Notably, BTC fell short of $17,000 for the third time since November 29 while avoiding sub-$16,000.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early morning high of $16,825. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,859, BTC slid to a late low of $16,261. BTC fell through the Major Support Levels before moving back through the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $16,380 to end the day at $16,447.

Recession Fears and the NASDAQ Index Send BTC into the Red

On Monday, uncertainty toward Fed monetary policy weighed on investor sentiment. The FMOC economic projections and hawkish FOMC member chatter in the wake of the Fed Chair Powell press conference have pressured riskier assets.

The recent commentary and projections have questioned Fed pivot bets, leading the NASDAQ Index to a fourth consecutive loss and BTC to sub-$16,500 for the first time since November 30. Fears of a hard landing stemming from an aggressive Fed interest rate path have spooked investors.

On Monday, the NASDAQ Index fell by 1.49%, with the S&P500 ending the day with a 0.90% loss.

Today, there are no US economic indicators to influence, leaving the NASDAQ Index and the crypto news wires to provide direction. This morning, the NASDAQ mini was up 27.25 points, delivering early support.

The Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady at 29/100 Despite BTC Loss

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index held steady at 29/100, despite BTC falling to sub-$16,500. Easing fears of a Binance liquidity crunch continued to provide support, muting the impact of recessionary fears on investor sentiment.

While fears of a liquidity crunch delivered support, recessionary fears will likely test investor sentiment. With the crypto market tracking the NASDAQ Index, the crypto market will provide little protection in the event of a sharp NASDAQ sell-off.

Avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key near-term. The bulls will need to target the pre-FTX collapse November 6 high of 40/100 to support a run at $20,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.81% to $16,581. A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise from an early morning low of $16,413 to a high of $16,598.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $16,511 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,761 and the Monday high of $16,825. A move through the Monday high would signal a bullish session. However, the NASDAQ Index will need to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $17,075 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,639.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,197 into play. Barring another risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $15,947. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $15,383.

An adverse crypto market event would bring sub-$16,000 into play.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, BTC sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,974. After Sunday’s bearish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($16,761) would support a run at the 50-day EMA ($16,974) and R2 ($17,075). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave BTC under pressure.