BTC Fear & Greed Index Holds Despite the US Stats and NASDAQ Loss

Key Insights:

• On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.65% to end the day at $17,090.
• BTC found late market support despite a better-than-expected US Jobs Report and NASDAQ Composite Index loss.
• However, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 27/100, reflecting uncertainty following the Jobs Report.

On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.65%. Partially reversing a 1.16% gain from Thursday, BTC ended the day at $17,090. BTC wrapped up the day at $17,000 for the second time since November 11.

After a mixed morning session, BTC rose to an early afternoon high of $17,100. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $17,253, BTC slid to an early afternoon low of $16,789. However, finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,790, BTC bounced back to end the day at $17,090.

Investor jitters were evident ahead of Friday’s US Jobs Report. While Fed Chair Powell had talked of a Fed pivot on Wednesday, economic indicators delivered mixed results on Thursday. US inflation softened but not enough to force the Fed to consider pausing plans to bring inflation to target.

In contrast, ISM manufacturing PMI numbers painted a grim picture, with the manufacturing sector contracting for the first time since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Friday’s US Jobs Report came in better than expected, with wage growth accelerating and nonfarm payrolls seeing a sizeable increase. A steady unemployment rate at 3.7% limited the damage, supporting a dollar pullback and a NASDAQ Composite Index and BTC recovery.

However, despite the post-Jobs Report recovery, the NASDAQ Composite Index ended the day with a 0.18% loss, which weighed on investor sentiment going into the weekend.

The Fear & Greed Index Holds at 27/100 Despite the Jobs Report

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index held steady at 27/100. The better-than-expected US Jobs Report failed to spook investors, despite an unexpected pickup in wage growth.

Crypto investors likely continued taking comfort from Fed Chair Powell’s talk of a Fed pivot mid-week.

However, while Fed fear may have eased, investor jitters over a US economic recession could resurface. This week’s ISM Manufacturing PMI painted a grim picture ahead of next week’s all-important ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The services sector accounts for close to 70% of the US economy.

Near-term, avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key near-term. The bulls will need to target the pre-FTX collapse November 6 high of 40/100 to support a BTC run at $20,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.25% to $17,048. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $17,144 before falling to a low of $17,021.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $16,993 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $17,197. A move through the morning high of $17,144 would signal a bullish session. However, the crypto news wires should be market-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $17,304 and resistance at the current-week high of $17,335. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,615.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,886 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,682 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $16,371.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a more bullish signal. This morning, BTC sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $16,862. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A move through R1 ($17,197) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($17,304) and the 200-day EMA ($17,460). However, a fall through S1 ($16,886) and the 100-day EMA ($16,862) would bring the 50-day EMA ($16,750) into view.