BTC Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady as BTC Falls Short of $17,000

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.60% to end the day at $16,658.
• US economic indicators provided much-needed relief, with the NASDAQ and BTC ending the day in positive territory.
• The Fear & Greed Index held steady at 28/100 despite the bullish BTC session, suggesting another range-bound session.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.60%. Partially reversing a 0.97% loss from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $16,658. Notably, BTC failed to revisit $17,000 for the ninth consecutive session while avoiding sub-$16,500.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $16,505. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,613, BTC rose to a late afternoon high of $16,675. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,755, BTC eased back to end the day at $16,658.

Fed Fear Eased on US Jobless Claims to Support the NASDAQ and BTC

Following a quiet first half of the week, US economic indicators drew interest on Thursday. Last Friday’s inflation figures failed to quash fears of the Fed sticking to its mantra and pushing ahead on an aggressive interest rate path.

The jobless claims provided temporary relief, with initial jobless claims rising from 216k to 225k in the week ending December 23. However, the modest increase is unlikely to influence the Fed’s policy outlook.

The December Jobs Report (January 6) will have far more influence on the Fed, the NASDAQ Index, and BTC. On Thursday, the NASDAQ Index rallied by 2.59%.

Today, the US economic calendar is on the light side. However, the Chicago PMI will draw interest. Following the market sensitivity to the jobless claim numbers, we could see more interest than usual in today’s PMI. Softer labor market conditions and upbeat private sector activity would support riskier assets.

Investors should also monitor the crypto news wires and any FOMC member chatter. Hawkish chatter would test buyer appetite. Barring any material crypto events, BTC will likely track the NASDAQ Index through the afternoon session. The NASDAQ mini was down 8 points this morning.

The Fear & Greed Index Hold at 28/100 Despite BTC Gain

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index held steady at 28/100 despite the bullish BTC session. While ending the day in positive territory, BTC continued to fall short of $17,000.

Considering the crypto market headwinds, an Index return to the Neutral zone remains unlikely over the near term. Regulatory risk, Fed and recession fears, and geopolitics remain headwinds that could send BTC south and the Index into the Extreme Fear zone.

Avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key near-term. The bulls will need to target the pre-FTX collapse November 6 high of 40/100 to support a BTC run at $20,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.26% to $16,615. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC fall from an early high of $16,659 to a low of $16,602.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid a fall through the $16,613 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,720. A move through the Thursday high of $16,675 would signal a bullish session. However, the crypto news wires and the NASDAQ Index need to be crypto-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would break out from the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,783 to target the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $16,953.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,550 into play. Barring a crypto risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,300. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,443 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $16,273.

An adverse crypto market event would bring sub-$16,000 into play.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. BTC sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,758. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($16,720) would support a run at the 50-day EMA ($16,758) and R2 ($16,783). A breakout from the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($16,758) would bring the Major Support Levels into view.