BTC Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady as Market Preps for US CPI Report

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) rose for the second time in eight sessions.
• While wholesale inflation figures delivered mixed signals ahead of today’s US CPI report, the FOMC meeting minutes provided late support.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index held steady at 20/100.

On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.51%. Reversing a 0.34% loss from Tuesday, BTC ended the day at $19,160. Notably, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the fifth consecutive session while avoiding a loss for the second time in eight sessions.

A mixed morning saw BTC fall to an early low of $19,025. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,860, BTC rose to a late high of $19,233. BTC came within range of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,263 before ending the day at sub-$19,200.

US economic indicators and the FOMC meeting minutes delivered BTC and broader crypto market support. However, hopes of the Fed taking its foot off the gas on any signs of weakening economic conditions proved pivotal.

This morning, the probability of a 75-basis point rate hike in November stood at 84.8% and 28.6% in December. Today’s US CPI report will likely decide the fate of the November move and influence sentiment toward the December decision.

Following a 0.09% loss on Wednesday, the NASDAQ Mini was up 27.75 points this morning.

The Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady as BTC Avoids Sub-$19,000

Today, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 20/100, with a second BTC rise in eight sessions providing support. However, the Index remained in the Extreme Fear zone, reflecting investor sentiment towards the Fed, the war in Ukraine, and the economic outlook.

Despite sitting in the Extreme Fear zone, avoiding sub-20/100 suggests investor resilience, though today’s US CPI report could prove pivotal.

For the bulls, the Index will need to continue avoiding sub-20/100 to support a shift in sentiment. However, a fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.05% to $19,169. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,172 before falling to a low of $19,135.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $19,139 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,254. A BTC move through the Wednesday high of $19,233 would signal a bullish session. However, today’s US CPI report and the FOMC member chatter would need to be crypto-friendly to support a breakout.

In the case of an extended rally, BTC should move through the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,347 to target $19,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $19,555.

A fall through the pivot would likely see BTC test the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,046 and support at $19,000. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$19,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,931.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,723.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,388.

Following Monday’s bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA, the 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA also fell back from the 200-day EMA to deliver bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($19,254) and R2 ($19,347) would target the 50-day EMA ($19,388). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($19,388) would leave sub-$19,000 in play.