BTC Fear & Greed Index Nears Extreme Fear Despite NASDAQ Support

Key Insights:

• On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.59% to end the day at $16,946.
• A bullish NASDAQ mini delivered much-needed support in the final hour of the day.
• The Fear & Greed Index slipped from 28/100 to 27/100 on BTC continuing to fall short of $17,000.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.59%. Reversing a 0.10% loss from Sunday, BTC ended the day at $16,946. Notably, BTC failed to revisit $17,000 for the sixth consecutive session while avoiding the red for just the third time in nine sessions.

After a mixed morning, BTC fell to a mid-afternoon low of $16,814. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,755, BTC rallied to a final-hour high of $16,963. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,906. However, coming up against the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,966, BTC eased back to end the day at $16,946.

The NASDAQ Mini Delivers a Final Hour Rally

It was another quiet session on Monday, with the European and US markets closed for the holidays. Holiday trading volumes left BTC within another range-bound session. However, the NASDAQ mini delivered late support, with BTC targeting $17,000 before easing back.

US retail sales figures delivered NASDAQ support at the turn of the day.

Crypto market headwinds continued to cap the upside. Regulatory risk, recession jitters, and Fed fear will remain areas of concern over the near term.

Today, US economic indicators include trade and housing data. However, the numbers are unlikely to influence. FOMC member chatter would draw interest, with the NASDAQ Index likely to guide investors in the afternoon session.

The markets will be looking for less hawkish Fed commentary to ease fears of a hard landing, which would support riskier assets.

The Fear & Greed Index Slips from 28/100 to 27/100 on BTC Struggles

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index fell from 28/100 to 27/100 despite a bullish BTC session. While ending the day in positive territory, BTC continued to fall short of $17,000.

With the European and US markets reopening, it could be a choppy session ahead. Economic data is on the light side, leaving investors to consider the prospect of crypto market regulatory reforms and the ever-present threat of an economic recession. However, easing fears of another liquidity crunch remain crypto-market positive.

Avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key near-term. The bulls will need to target the pre-FTX collapse November 6 high of 40/100 to support a BTC run at $20,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.41% to $16,876. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,987 before falling to a low of $16,866.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $16,908 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $17,001. A return to $16,900 would signal a bullish session. However, the crypto news wires and the NASDAQ Index need to be crypto-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $17,057 and resistance at $17,100. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,206.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,852 in play. Barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,750. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,759 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $16,610.

An adverse crypto market event would bring sub-$16,000 into play.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, BTC sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,878. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day ($16,878) and 100-day ($16,931) EMAs would support a breakout from R1 ($17,001) to target R2 ($17,057). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($16,878) would bring the Major Support Levels into view.